Bloomberg, citing anonymous insiders on May 22, reported that prediction market platform Polymarket has appointed a representative in Japan and is preparing to lobby for Japan to approve the legalization of prediction markets. The goal is to obtain approval from the Japanese government before 2030; the details of the plan have not been made public. Due to “regulatory requirements,” Japan is currently listed on Polymarket’s regional restriction list, which prohibits Japanese users from placing bets on its website and in its app.
Japan’s Current Gambling Legal Framework: Strict Criminal Penalties and Legitimate Exceptions
Under Japan’s Criminal Code, habitual gamblers can face up to three years in prison, and those operating gambling venues can face up to five years in prison. In 2025, Japan further tightened regulation of online gambling, banning the establishment and operation of online casinos domestically. Legal exceptions include government-authorized horse racing and public lotteries, as well as the pachinko (ball-machine) industry operated through a special exchange model. As of 2024, its market cap is about 16 trillion yen (about $100 billion, source: Japan Productivity Center). Japan’s first casino resort, the Osaka MGM Hotel, is expected to open in 2030, and will be subject to area limitations and high entry-fee requirements. A representative for Japan’s Ministry of Justice declined to comment on the legality of prediction markets and said it would review individual cases under the Criminal Code.
Polymarket’s Japan Strategy: Representative Appointment and Social Media Outreach
Insiders said that Mike Eidlin is leading Polymarket’s business expansion in Japan. He previously served as Japan head for the cryptocurrency company Jupiter; he refused to comment on whether he is taking up a role at Polymarket. Polymarket’s Japan X account currently has more than 53,000 followers. While waiting for government approval, the company plans to use social media to share news to expand its influence in Japan. A Polymarket spokesperson said the company has seen “substantial user interest” in Japan and across Asia, and is evaluating ways to expand globally that are compliant and suited to local realities.
Background: U.S. Legal Scrutiny and Competition from Kalshi
Polymarket is currently facing legal scrutiny in the United States, as well as increasingly intense competition from Kalshi and other rivals. Polymarket allows users to place bets on real-world events such as elections using cryptocurrency. Due to Japan’s strict gambling restrictions, it has so far avoided promoting its services in Japan.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why does Polymarket see Japan as a market opportunity?
Insiders say Polymarket believes Japan is a massive, underdeveloped market opportunity. Polymarket’s Japan X account already has more than 53,000 followers. A company spokesperson confirmed it has seen “significant user interest” in Japan and Asia. Insiders requested anonymity; related plans have not been disclosed, and Polymarket declined to comment on its Japan business.
What is Japan’s legal stance on prediction markets?
A representative from Japan’s Ministry of Justice declined to comment on the legality of prediction markets and said it would review individual cases under the Criminal Code. Japan’s Criminal Code provides criminal penalties for habitual gamblers and for operators of gambling venues, and in 2025 it further strengthened regulation of online gambling.
What role does Mike Eidlin play in Polymarket’s Japan business?
Insiders said that Mike Eidlin is leading Polymarket’s business expansion in Japan. His LinkedIn shows he previously served as Japan head for the cryptocurrency company Jupiter. He declined to comment on whether he is taking up a role at Polymarket, and Polymarket also declined to comment on its Japan business.
