Prediction market traders on Polymarket and Kalshi turned bearish on the Clarity Act (H.R. 3633) becoming law by December 31, 2026, with Polymarket odds falling to 39% as of July 19, 2026. The decline reflects skepticism that congressional action will translate into signed legislation despite bipartisan support. The bill, which passed the House in July 2025 and was reported out of the Senate Banking Committee on June 1, 2026, aims to establish a regulatory framework splitting authority between the SEC and CFTC for digital assets.
Polymarket Prices 39% Odds for Clarity Act Enactment by December 31, 2026
The Polymarket market asking whether the Clarity Act gets signed into law before December 31, 2026, drew nearly $1.94 million in volume as of July 19, 2026. Current odds sit at 39% for "yes" and 62% for "no." The "yes" figure fell approximately 26% from recent highs.
Kalshi Market Shows 67.8% Odds for Senate Vote Before August 8
A Kalshi market asking whether the Senate holds a recorded vote on the Clarity Act before the August recess shows YES contracts trading at 68 cents, putting implied odds at 67.8%. The market opened July 10 and closes by August 8, or earlier if a qualifying vote occurs first. Only recorded votes count; voice votes and procedural rulings do not qualify.
$3.1M Kalshi Market Tracks Broader Crypto Legislation Timeline
A third Kalshi market with $3.1 million in volume asks whether crypto market structure legislation becomes federal law by specific target dates. Traders price a 61% chance of enactment before April 1, 2027, 53% before July 1, 2027, and 57% before October 1, 2027. The market requires qualifying bills to establish a full regulatory framework for digital assets, split authority clearly between the SEC and CFTC, and define when an asset counts as a security versus a commodity. Stablecoin-only bills like the GENIUS Act do not count, nor do CBDC-specific bills or legislation passing only one chamber.
Clarity Act Legislative Status as of June 2026
The Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support. The Senate Banking Committee reported it out on June 1, 2026, with amendments, placing it on the Legislative Calendar. Sen. Tim Scott led the committee action. The House Digital Assets Subcommittee held a field hearing in New York on July 17, 2026, marking one year since House passage.
Supporters and Critics Outline Policy Positions
Supporters point to backing from the Trump administration and lawmakers including Sen. Cynthia Lummis. They argue the bill replaces years of SEC enforcement actions with clear rules for exchanges, custodians, and developers. Critics, including Senate Banking Democrats like Elizabeth Warren, warn that DeFi carve-outs in the bill could weaken anti-money laundering enforcement. They point to groups like North Korea's Lazarus Group as a reason to keep oversight tight on decentralized platforms. President Trump's own crypto investments have sparked additional scrutiny.
Market Odds Reflect Procedural vs. Enactment Confidence Gap
The gap between the two Kalshi markets shows bettors expect the Senate to act soon but remain far less confident that action turns into a signed law by year's end. A Senate vote is a procedural step that does not guarantee passage or ensure the version that passes matches what the House already approved. Polymarket's declining "yes" odds track the same skepticism. Congress has a history of letting crypto legislation stall even after committee approval; FIT21, the Clarity Act's predecessor, passed the House in 2024 and never reached a Senate vote.
FAQ
What are the current Polymarket odds for the Clarity Act becoming law by December 31, 2026?
Polymarket prices a 39% chance the Clarity Act gets signed into law before December 31, 2026, as of July 19, 2026. The "yes" odds fell approximately 26% from recent highs, with the market drawing nearly $1.94 million in volume.
What is the Kalshi market pricing for a Senate vote on the Clarity Act before August 8?
Kalshi bettors set 67.8% odds the Senate holds a recorded vote on the Clarity Act before August 8. YES contracts trade at 68 cents in a market that opened July 10 and closes by August 8 or earlier if a qualifying recorded vote occurs.
What legislative status does the Clarity Act currently hold?
The Clarity Act passed the House in July 2025 with bipartisan support and was reported out of the Senate Banking Committee on June 1, 2026, with amendments. Sen. Tim Scott led the committee action, placing the bill on the Legislative Calendar. The House Digital Assets Subcommittee held a field hearing on July 17, 2026.
