Prediction Markets Say 73% Hold for Fed, Citadel Bets on 25 bps Hike Before July 29 Decision

Prediction markets show strong consensus for a Fed hold ahead of the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with Kalshi pricing no rate change at 73% and a 25-basis-point hike at 26%. CME FedWatch similarly shows a 66.3% hold probability. However, Citadel Securities' Frank Flight has broken from consensus, arguing in a Bloomberg-reported note on July 27 that the Fed could deliver a surprise quarter-point hike this week to reinforce Chair Warsh's price stability commitment.

Meanwhile, President Trump pressured the central bank on July 27, calling Warsh fantastic while insisting rates should come down. Trump said the country could grow at an 8% to 12% annualized pace under lower borrowing costs and repeated his position that the United States should carry the world's lowest interest rates.