Samsung Electronics' Q2 earnings announcement scheduled for July 7 is expected to show operating profit reaching 85 trillion won according to market consensus, with some analysts forecasting up to 90 trillion won — a potential record-high result. The anticipated profit surge is driven by expanded sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers and DRAM/NAND price increases of approximately 60% quarter-over-quarter. Market attention is now focused on whether Samsung will expand shareholder returns through increased dividends or additional share buybacks and cancellations, as the company currently maintains an annual dividend of 9.8 trillion won under its 2024-2026 policy and is executing a 10 trillion won share buyback plan announced last year.
Analysts Forecast Samsung Q2 Operating Profit Between 85-91 Trillion Won
According to financial data provider FnGuide, the consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' Q2 results is revenue of 173.8644 trillion won and operating profit of 85.0494 trillion won. This represents increases of 133.17% and 1718.83% respectively compared to the same period last year. KB Securities forecasts 90 trillion won in operating profit, Daesin Securities estimates 91 trillion won, and Kiwoom Securities projects 89 trillion won. Variations in analyst estimates stem from differing assumptions about one-time costs including performance bonus provisions and employee stock compensation expenses. Meritz Securities estimated operating profit at 90.1 trillion won after reflecting 19.3 trillion won in related provisions, while Samsung Securities presented 86 trillion won after accounting for 16.3 trillion won in provisions. Some analysts suggest operating profit could exceed 100 trillion won before one-time cost provisions.
Kim Dong-won, head of KB Securities Research Division, stated that Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit will surge 19-fold year-over-year to 90 trillion won with an operating margin reaching 51%. He explained that customer memory demand fulfillment rate in June was only around 50%, indicating intensified supply shortages, and Q2 DRAM and NAND price increases each reached approximately 60% quarter-over-quarter. The performance improvement is attributed to expanded HBM sales for AI servers and rising DRAM/NAND flash prices, as AI investment competition continues to drive surging demand for high-performance memory while memory industry recovery supports results.
Samsung Stock Price and Foreign Ownership Decline from Recent Highs
Samsung Electronics' stock price rose to 358,500 won on June 25, reflecting earnings expectations, but subsequently declined due to profit-taking. The closing price stands at 318,000 won, approximately 11% below the recent high. Foreign ownership has recently fallen to 46.72%. Foreign ownership, which maintained above 50% at the beginning of the year, first dropped below 50% in March and has continued declining since then.
Market Expectations for Expanded Shareholder Return Policy
Samsung Electronics currently maintains an annual regular dividend of 9.8 trillion won under its 2024-2026 shareholder return policy. The company is also conducting sequential share cancellations based on a 10 trillion won share buyback plan announced last year. A securities industry official stated that the most important aspect of this earnings announcement is the message the company will deliver rather than the numbers themselves, noting that with record-level profits expected, market expectations are high for shareholder value enhancement measures such as dividend expansion or additional share buybacks and cancellations. The official added that strengthened shareholder return policies could positively impact foreign investor demand given the recent decline in foreign ownership.
FAQ
What is the consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit?
The consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' Q2 operating profit is 85.0494 trillion won, with some analysts projecting between 89-91 trillion won. This represents a 1718.83% increase compared to the same period last year.
What is driving Samsung Electronics' Q2 profit surge?
The profit surge is driven by expanded sales of high-bandwidth memory (HBM) for AI servers and DRAM/NAND price increases of approximately 60% quarter-over-quarter, as AI investment competition drives surging demand for high-performance memory.
