SanDisk stock closed at $2,273.73 on June 30, up 10.9% in a single day, with a year-to-date gain of 858%. Michael Burry, the real-life inspiration for "The Big Short," warned on his Substack blog that he believes this is the beginning of the end for semiconductors, just a matter of time. He has opened short positions in NVIDIA, Caterpillar, Applied Materials, Tesla, and the SOXX ETF.
Bernstein Raises SanDisk Target Price to $3,000
Bernstein analyst Mark Newman raised his target price for SanDisk from $1,700 to $3,000, reiterating an outperform rating. The fundamental support for SanDisk's rally comes from Micron Technology's quarterly data: quarterly sales of $41.5 billion, NAND flash memory business up 360% year-over-year, and enterprise SSD sales surpassing the $5 billion mark for the first time.
Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said: "The global memory market disruption is highly likely to continue into 2027 and beyond." He explained that the memory price crash in 2023 (Micron's gross margin once fell to -7.3%) depleted the industry's expansion capacity, which combined with the subsequent explosion in AI demand to create a structural supply bottleneck.
Burry Calls It the "Beginning of the End" on Substack, Opens Six Short Positions
Michael Burry stated that South Korea's large-scale investment plan was the direct cause of the market surge, but he believes this momentum will eventually fade—"just a matter of time." Burry also noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since the 2000 dot-com bubble. Burry's new short positions are as follows:
- Caterpillar: Short price $1,060.98 (Burry said "I've never shorted Caterpillar before"); closed at $1,064.9 on June 30, up 3.07%, YTD up 86%, considered a bellwether for AI infrastructure investment.
- NVIDIA
- Applied Materials
- Tesla
- SOXX Semiconductor ETF (Specific short prices and sizes for the above four were not disclosed in the report)
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston quipped: "The current logic is that semiconductor companies will generate huge profits in the coming years, but hyperscale data center operators are making the wrong investments."
SK Hynix ADR Expected to List on Nasdaq on July 10
SK Hynix is expected to list its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) on Nasdaq on July 10. Reports indicate that SK Hynix holds about a 60% share of the HBM market, and its direct listing to U.S. investors is seen as one of the factors behind Micron Technology's modest 0.79% gain on June 30.
Motley Fool analysis stated: "Micron's stock price may fall after July 10, but there won't be a major sell-off." The analysis is based on the fact that SK Hynix was already listed in South Korea, and investors who wanted to buy it could already do so, unlike a completely new IPO.
FAQ
What is the core business driver behind SanDisk's 858% annual gain?
SanDisk's gains are mainly driven by the supply tightness in the NAND flash memory market. Micron's quarterly data showed NAND business up 360% year-over-year, with enterprise SSD exceeding $5 billion for the first time. In the AI inference phase, large-scale storage becomes a bottleneck, shifting market focus from GPU to memory and storage. Bernstein raised SanDisk's target price to $3,000 on the same day.
What are the specific quantitative bases for Michael Burry's "beginning of the end" warning?
Burry cited two quantitative bases in his Substack: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200-day moving average, a level not seen since the 2000 dot-com bubble; South Korea's large-scale investment plan was the direct cause of the day's surge, and Burry believes this momentum will eventually fade. He simultaneously opened short positions in Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials, Tesla, and the SOXX ETF.
What is the known impact of SK Hynix's ADR listing on July 10 on Micron Technology?
Motley Fool analysis suggests that Micron's stock price may fall after SK Hynix's ADR listing, but there won't be a major sell-off because SK Hynix was already listed in South Korea, and interested investors could already buy it. SK Hynix holds about a 60% market share of HBM, and its direct listing to U.S. investors may divert some funds from Micron.
