Silver collapsed 43% from its all-time high of $121.64 per ounce on January 29, 2026 to trade near $66–69 on June 10, 2026, per Investing.com, erasing the year's gains. The decline followed strong US non-farm payrolls data that repriced Federal Reserve expectations, triggering a 5% session sell-off and an additional 2.5% decline on June 10. Despite the drawdown, institutional forecasts moved in the opposite direction: the Reuters analyst poll average sits at $79.50—up from $50 in October 2025—Commerzbank holds $90, J.P. Morgan models an $85 fourth-quarter high, and Bank of America raised its 2026 average 32% to $85.93. The Silver Institute projects a 67-million-ounce deficit for 2026, marking the sixth consecutive annual shortfall, while COMEX registered silver stood at 76 million ounces in late March 2026 against 576 million ounces of open interest—a 13.4% coverage ratio.
Silver's 2026 Price Trajectory From January Peak to June Decline
Silver entered 2026 on a 140%-plus trailing rally and spiked to $121.64 in late January as Citigroup called it "gold on steroids." The metal spent four months giving the move back. The proximate triggers for the June leg lower were a strong US non-farm payrolls print last Friday that repriced Federal Reserve expectations, gold slipping below $4,200, and silver following with a 5% session sell-off and another 2.5% decline on June 10, per XTB Research.
XTB Research noted the chart is "approaching key support" with the 250-session moving average sitting just above $60. XTB also flagged an expected contraction of the market deficit and a projected 20% year-on-year decline in photovoltaic demand as the fundamental soft spot bears lean on.
The structural picture underneath remains unchanged. The Silver Institute still projects a 67-million-ounce deficit for 2026—year six of consecutive shortfalls. The COMEX warehouse system remains stretched: 76 million registered ounces against 576 million ounces of open interest in late March, a 13.4% coverage ratio, with that single March delivery cycle absorbing 46.1 million ounces—60.6% of the registered stock.
Michael Widmer, Head of Metals Research at Bank of America, stated: "Silver may appeal more to investors willing to take higher risk for extra upside." Widmer noted the historical gold-to-silver ratio low of 32 in 2011 implies $135 silver, and the 1980 low of 14 implies $309, per Kitco News on January 5, 2026.
Institutional Forecasters Raise Targets During Price Collapse
The institutional response to the crash has been to raise, not cut. Bank of America lifted its 2026 average from $65 to $85.93. Commerzbank holds a $90 year-end target. J.P. Morgan Global Research models an $81 full-year average with $85 in Q4. Citigroup's January $150 three-month call expired unmet, but the bank still frames $110–150 as a realistic medium-term range.
Binance listed XAGUSDT perpetuals in January 2026, putting leveraged silver inside the largest crypto derivatives venue—a product class CME chief executive Terry Duffy has publicly warned about, as FinanceFeeds reported. Kinesis' KAG token wraps vaulted, audited bullion at roughly $414 million of market value, Ondo carries tokenised iShares Silver exposure, and Chainlink-fed pricing keeps the wrappers tethered to spot. OKX now runs 24/7 trading across US stocks, oil and gold—the template silver products follow.
Bas Kooijman, CEO and Asset Manager at DHF Capital S.A., stated: "Silver prices traded sideways extending a period of consolidation as investors remained cautious ahead of key geopolitical developments… recent Federal Reserve remarks further anchor this narrative, with policymakers emphasizing inflation risks," per Finance Magnates.
COMEX Inventory Data and Tokenized Silver Exposure
COMEX registered silver stood at 76 million ounces in late March 2026 against 576 million ounces of open interest—a 13.4% coverage ratio, per Finance Magnates. The March 2026 delivery cycle alone absorbed 46.1 million ounces, 60.6% of registered stock, per Finance Magnates.
Tokenised silver exposure tops $435 million, with Kinesis KAG at approximately $414 million and Ondo's tokenised iShares Silver at approximately $21 million, inside a $19.3 billion RWA market, per CoinGecko Q1 2026 data. The tokenised commodities sector now exceeds $4.4 billion in value within a real-world-asset market that tripled to $19.3 billion by the end of Q1 2026, per CoinGecko's RWA research.
The synthesis: roughly six paper claims circulate per deliverable ounce on COMEX. Tokenised gold carries about $5.1 billion of market value against silver's roughly $435 million—an 11.7-to-1 ratio, nearly twice the gold-to-silver price ratio itself.
Spot Price Versus Institutional Year-End Forecasts
| Source | Year-end / target view | Versus ~$68 spot | Basis |
|--------|------------------------|------------------|-------|
| XTB technical support | $60 (250-session MA) | -12% | Chart support, PV demand risk — XTB, June 10, 2026 |
| Reuters analyst poll | $79.50 (2026 average) | +17% | 67-analyst consensus — via Finance Magnates |
| J.P. Morgan | $85 (Q4 high) | +25% | Deficit plus investment demand |
| Bank of America | $85.93 average; $135–309 ratio range | +26% to +354% | Gold-silver ratio compression — Kitco |
| Commerzbank | $90 (year-end) | +32% | Supply deficit persistence |
| Citigroup | $110–150 (medium term) | +62% to +121% | Ratio plus Chinese demand |
Sources: Investing.com spot, June 10, 2026; forecasts as attributed above. Percentages computed against $68.
Regulatory Framework Across Three Trading Venues
Silver's market structure operates across three regulatory regimes. COMEX futures sit under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), where position limits and delivery-month mechanics were designed for a market with comfortable registered stocks—not 13.4% coverage. The London bullion market polices itself through LBMA good-delivery standards with no equivalent public inventory disclosure. The crypto layer—Binance's XAGUSDT perps, tokenised KAG, on-chain silver collateral—falls between regimes: offshore perpetuals reach US-adjacent retail through structures the CFTC is still contesting, while tokenised commodities under Europe's MiCA framework are treated as asset-referenced products with disclosure duties the issuers, not regulators, operationalise.
Washington's CLARITY Act negotiations, which would redraw the SEC-CFTC boundary for digital assets, will determine which agency inherits the tokenised-commodity perimeter. Senator Warren's records request to the CFTC landed this month while commodity event-contracts and perps multiply.
Bank Projections Through Year-End
The institutional consensus clusters between $79.50 (Reuters analyst poll average) and $90 (Commerzbank year-end target), with J.P. Morgan modelling an $85 fourth-quarter high. That implies 15–35% upside from the June 10, 2026 spot price near $68 per ounce.
The bullish tail runs from Citigroup's $110–150 medium-term band to Bank of America strategist Michael Widmer's ratio-based range of $135–309. Those scenarios require the gold-to-silver ratio, near 64, to compress toward its 2011 extreme of 32—mechanical reversion alone would imply roughly $146 silver at current gold prices.
FAQ
What is the silver price forecast for the end of 2026?
The institutional consensus clusters between $79.50 (Reuters analyst poll average) and $90 (Commerzbank year-end target), with J.P. Morgan modelling an $85 fourth-quarter high. That implies 15–35% upside from the June 10, 2026 spot price near $68 per ounce.
Why did silver crash from its all-time high?
After printing $121.64 on January 29, 2026, silver gave back the year's gains on repriced Federal Reserve expectations, gold's slip below $4,200, an expected contraction in the market deficit, and a projected 20% fall in photovoltaic demand, per XTB. The June 10 price sat near $66–69.
What is the COMEX silver squeeze?
COMEX held about 76 million registered ounces against 576 million ounces of open interest in late March 2026—a 13.4% coverage ratio, with one delivery cycle absorbing 60.6% of deliverable stock. When too many contract holders demand physical delivery at once, prices can reprice violently upward.
