Tesla Q2 Capex Hits $5.79B, Free Cash Flow Swings Negative; Munster Forecasts $25B Capex in 2026

According to Fiscal AI and analyst Munster, Tesla's second-quarter capital expenditure surged to $5.79 billion, pushing free cash flow to negative $1.09 billion—the company's first negative quarterly cash flow in two years. The earnings report, released July 23, showed that Elon Musk is prioritizing faster execution across AI, Optimus, Cybercab, semiconductors, and solar manufacturing over near-term capital efficiency. Tesla stock fell 4% in extended trading following the earnings announcement.

Fiscal AI projects 2026 capex will reach $25 billion—about triple 2025 levels—with annual free cash flow expected to swing to negative $10 billion. Munster said he expects 2027 capex to hit $25 billion, well above Wall Street's estimate of $21 billion. Musk said on the earnings call that capital spending will continue as Tesla invests aggressively in robotaxi, Optimus, and semiconductor manufacturing.