TSLA Rises 3% Before Q2 Report Amid Analyst Split on Robotaxi Credibility

On Tuesday (July 22), Tesla stock rose 3% ahead of the company's second-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, as analysts offered contrasting takes on the electric vehicle maker's near-term performance and communication credibility.

Gene Munster of Deepwater Asset Management expects Tesla's Q2 automotive gross margins, excluding credits, to exceed Wall Street's 19.5% estimate, citing nearly 480,000 deliveries, up 25% year over year. However, Munster flagged rising capital expenditures as a risk, projecting $6.7 billion in Q2 capex and warning that full-year guidance could exceed the current $25.6 billion consensus. Gary Black of The Future Fund argued that repeated missed timelines on Robotaxi—including Elon Musk's Q2 2025 claim that half the U.S. population would have coverage by year-end—have damaged Tesla's management credibility, creating "unnecessary attack vectors and disillusionment." Investors are expected to raise questions on robotaxi deployment, Optimus production, and Tesla-SpaceX merger speculation on the earnings call.