U.S. Oil Surge Pushes Rate Hike Bets to 33.7% Amid Iran Tensions, Tech Stocks Fall 20%

According to analysts, oil prices are surging amid escalating Iran geopolitical risks, pushing expectations for higher U.S. interest rates. GasBuddy analyst Patrick De Haan estimates U.S. gasoline retail prices could rise to $4.15–$4.25 per gallon in coming weeks. The rally has already transmitted to debt markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.66% and the 30-year yield remaining above 5%, pressuring growth assets dependent on low financing costs.

Federal funds futures now price in a 33.7% probability of a rate hike, up sharply from 25.7% last week, according to market data. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) has declined more than 20%, entering a technical bear market as higher rates weigh on technology stocks that have driven the four-year U.S. bull run.