Wintermute, the London-based algorithmic trading firm handling more than $3.5 trillion in annual volume, has begun providing two-sided liquidity on prediction markets, the company announced on Friday. The firm is quoting continuous bid and offer prices across active event contracts on leading venues, which together process more than $20 billion in monthly volume as of early 2026, according to a company statement. Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets need sustained two-sided liquidity to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, as that depth tightens spreads and supports larger trade sizes. The move comes as digital asset market-making peers expand into the same segment, with Jump Trading providing services to Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for equity stakes, and Galaxy Digital exploring liquidity provision arrangements with both platforms. Polymarket and Kalshi have together crossed $150 billion in cumulative lifetime volume as of April, according to The Block's data.
Wintermute Cites Infrastructure Overlap and Liquidity Needs
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets carry demand characteristics typically associated with larger asset classes, while liquidity conditions remain at an earlier stage of development. "For these markets to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, they need sustained two-sided liquidity," Ostrovskis said in the statement. "That depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and in turn improves the signal embedded in market prices. That is where Wintermute can add value."
Wintermute said the overlap between prediction markets and digital asset infrastructure is significant, citing the use of stablecoins, public blockchains, and crypto-native settlement systems across several venues. The firm said these markets require execution, custody, collateral, and risk management capabilities similar to those it operates across spot, derivatives, DeFi, and OTC trading.
Jump Trading and Galaxy Digital Enter Prediction Market Liquidity
Jump Trading has been reported to be providing market-making services to Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for equity stakes. Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has said the company is exploring liquidity provision arrangements with both platforms.
Polymarket and Kalshi Reach $150 Billion Cumulative Volume
Polymarket and Kalshi have together crossed $150 billion in cumulative lifetime volume as of April, according to The Block's data.
FAQ
What did Wintermute announce on Friday?
Wintermute announced it has begun providing two-sided liquidity on prediction markets, quoting continuous bid and offer prices across active event contracts on leading venues that process more than $20 billion in monthly volume as of early 2026.
Why is Wintermute entering prediction markets?
Jake Ostrovskis, head of OTC trading at Wintermute, said prediction markets need sustained two-sided liquidity to become a reliable real-time source of probability estimates, as that depth tightens spreads, supports larger trade sizes, and improves the signal embedded in market prices.
Which other firms are providing liquidity on prediction markets?
Jump Trading has been reported to be providing market-making services to Polymarket and Kalshi in exchange for equity stakes, and Galaxy Digital is exploring liquidity provision arrangements with both platforms.
