WMO Forecasts Powerful El Niño in July-September 2026, Warns of Commodity Market Impact

According to CNBC, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) forecasted on July 20 that a powerful El Niño phenomenon would emerge in the tropical Pacific between July and September 2026, potentially surpassing the 1982, 1997, and 2015 events. Investment strategists warned that the resulting extreme weather—including high temperatures, droughts, and heavy rainfall—poses underestimated risks to commodity markets.

Agricultural commodities face the greatest disruption. Societe Generale reported agricultural prices rose 7% in July alone, with cocoa, coffee, and wheat surging 8% in a single week. Bank of America predicts corn prices could rise from the current $4.70 per bushel to $5.50–$6.00, while sugar production in Brazil and Thailand may decline by 10% in 2026–2027.