Oil Prices Surge to $100 as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall Over Hormuz Strait; Analysts Warn of $150 Scenario

Gate News message, April 28 — As U.S.-Iran negotiations remain deadlocked and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faces disruption, international oil prices strengthened sharply on April 28. WTI crude (West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark) returned above $100 per barrel, with both WTI and Brent crude (the global benchmark) gaining over 2% intraday.

According to White House statements, President Trump and his national security team have reviewed Iran’s latest proposal. Iran seeks to restart Hormuz Strait shipping in exchange for the U.S. lifting port blockades and halting hostile actions; however, Trump stated he would only consider easing sanctions after any agreement is “100% implemented.” The two sides remain at an impasse. Tamas Varga, senior analyst at PVM Oil Associates, warned that if the conflict persists long-term, oil prices breaching $150 per barrel “is not impossible.” He noted that the global economy lacks sufficient alternative energy to fill supply gaps; an extended supply disruption would have a greater impact than demand destruction. Andy Lipow, president of the Lipow Oil Associates, added that even if the conflict ends immediately, clearing sea mines, resolving tanker congestion, and restoring production would require months of work, with the oil market needing at least 4 to 6 months to stabilize.

Meanwhile, multiple Wall Street institutions have downgraded oil market recovery expectations. Goldman Sachs has pushed back the timeline for Gulf energy export resumption to end of June; Citigroup projects that if the Hormuz Strait blockade persists through end of June, Brent crude could reach $150 per barrel.