Breaking news! The easing of China-U.S. trade negotiations boosts U.S. stocks, but Bitcoin is in a "transformation period": has the bull run script been rewritten?

With the U.S. administration confirming that President Trump’s meeting with the Chinese side is still on schedule, tensions in U.S.-China trade have eased somewhat, and U.S. stock futures extended their rise in the early trading session on Tuesday, October 14. However, new port fees took effect on that day, indicating that trade friction remains a key issue at the APEC summit. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Powell's speech is imminent, and the market is betting on two rate cuts in October and December, making the macroeconomic outlook increasingly critical for risk assets. For the crypto market, Bitcoin (BTC) has shown lackluster performance in the post-Halving cycle, and the inflow of institutional funds is reshaping its market structure, sparking intense discussions about whether the traditional four-year cycle is coming to an end.

Macro Positive: US-China Trade Negotiations and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Drive the Market

U.S. stock futures rose in the early morning of Tuesday, October 14, mainly boosted by optimistic sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Pessenet confirmed overnight that President Trump’s meeting with the Chinese side at the APEC summit (starting October 31) is still on the agenda, alleviating market concerns about an escalation of the trade war. As a result, U.S. stock futures continued to rise: Dow Jones E-mini rose 79 points, Nasdaq 100 E-mini rose 49 points, and S&P 500 E-mini rose 8 points. Asian markets also reacted positively, with the CSI index slightly up 0.02% and the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.22% in early trading.

However, the trade tensions have not been completely alleviated. On Tuesday, October 14, the United States and China began imposing additional port fees on ocean transport companies, affecting a wide range of goods from holiday toys to crude oil. This move is part of President Trump’s actions aimed at challenging China’s dominance in global maritime trade and trying to strengthen the U.S. shipbuilding industry. China, in turn, is charging fees on vessels owned, flagged, or operated by the United States. The new tariffs will undoubtedly become another focal topic at the upcoming APEC summit.

Powell's speech is imminent, and interest rate cut expectations are rising.

In addition to trade news, market focus is also on the speech by Fed Chairman Powell scheduled for later that evening. The market currently widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates consecutively in October and December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October and December is as high as 96.7% and 92.2%, respectively.

A key factor driving expectations for a rate cut is the deterioration of the U.S. labor market. The Kobeissi Letter comments that in September, the gap between Americans who believe jobs are “plentiful” and those who think they are “hard to get” narrowed to 7.8%, the lowest level since 2021 and the weakest data in eight years, excluding the peak pandemic period in 2020. Historical experience shows that this indicator is a leading indicator of the unemployment rate, suggesting that the number of future unemployment claims will increase. If Powell expresses concerns about the labor market in his speech and downplays stagflation risks, it could further solidify expectations for a rate cut, driving U.S. stock futures to hit recent historical highs. Conversely, if he expresses concerns about the escalating stagflation risks (particularly due to the worsening government shutdown), U.S. stock futures may pull back.

Senate Vote Impact on Market Sentiment

In addition, traders need to closely monitor Capitol Hill in the United States. The potential vote on the temporary funding bill in the Senate will directly impact market sentiment. A prolonged Senate deadlock may weigh on risk assets, and a long-term shutdown could slow GDP growth and increase stagflation risks. If the Senate passes the temporary funding bill, US stock futures are expected to continue rising. Despite these macro headwinds, technical indicators currently still show potential bullish momentum.

Analysis of Key Technical Levels in the US Stock Market

After a rise in the early session, U.S. stock futures remain above the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMAs), further confirming bullish momentum. However, the short-term outlook will still depend on Sino-U.S. trade news, Senate voting, and Fed Chairman Powell's policy stance.

· Dow Jones

Resistance levels: 46,500, 47,000, and the historical high point of 47,323 on October 3.

Support levels: 46,000, 50-day EMA (45,830).

· Nasdaq 100

Resistance levels: 25,000, historical high of 25,394 on October 9, 25,500.

Support level: 24,500, 50-day EMA (24,226).

· Standard & Poor's 500

Resistance levels: historical high of 6,812 on October 9, 7,000.

Support level: 6,600, 50-day EMA (6,581).

Bitcoin Cycle “Transition Period”: Institutional Reshaping of the Halving Narrative

Compared to the optimistic sentiment in the US stock market, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a “transitional period.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $114,600, stabilizing after several days of fluctuations. Since the Halving in 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) has risen approximately 43%, which is well below the historical level of usually soaring over 200% during the same period.

· Institutional Impact on Market Structure

Trading volume has cooled down, and retail enthusiasm seems to be less than in previous cycles. However, the underlying network remains strong: hash rate continues to rise, miner income is stabilizing, and institutional capital inflow through spot ETFs provides a stable demand foundation. This combination of slowing retail momentum and increased institutional participation has led many to question whether the 2024–2025 cycle marks the end of Bitcoin's (BTC) traditional four-year rhythm.

Optimists believe that although this cycle may be slower, it could ultimately be more sustainable. ETF inflows, sovereign adoption, and corporate balance sheet allocations are reshaping the market structure of Bitcoin (BTC). If liquidity conditions improve and central banks continue to ease policies, Bitcoin (BTC) is expected to move towards the $130,000 to $150,000 range in the coming months. Institutional buying has changed the dynamics post-Halving, with stable fund and ETF inflows supporting a more stable and resilient price structure, indicating that the next wave of rises may come from long-term accumulation rather than short-term speculation. Macroeconomic conditions remain key, with declining yields, stable inflation, and a weakening dollar all providing tailwinds for Bitcoin (BTC) heading into 2026.

· Risk Warning: The Weakest Halving Performance in History

However, not everyone believes that the cycle has “evolved”. Some analysts warn that the sluggish performance after the Halving may indicate that structural strength is weakening. Since April 2024, the rise of Bitcoin (BTC) has been the weakest of all post-Halving periods in history. If macro conditions tighten due to rekindled inflation, rising interest rates, or liquidity constraints, risk assets may pull back, and Bitcoin (BTC) could potentially retest the $100,000 to $95,000 range. A break below this range could trigger a deeper correction, possibly falling towards $80,000, as high-leverage long positions are liquidated. Skeptics also emphasize that institutional accumulation has a dual nature: when ETF demand slows, price corrections may accelerate, amplifying downward volatility.

· Recent Price Prediction

The recent price range of Bitcoin (BTC) is between $100,000 and $130,000, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting. A sustained breakout above $130,000 could open the path to over $150,000, confirming that the bull market has entered a new phase. Conversely, a drop below $100,000 may bring new volatility and broader risk-averse sentiment.

Conclusion

The current market environment is a complex situation interwoven with the easing of Sino-US trade tensions, heightened expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, and uncertainty in domestic US politics, all of which are collectively driving the trends of global risk assets. For Bitcoin (BTC), the performance of this halving cycle is breaking traditional scripts, as the rise of institutional forces is gradually diluting the direct explosive impact of the halving event on prices. This marks the entrance of the crypto market into a transitional period, where investors need to closely monitor macroeconomic policies and the flow of institutional funds, as the old “halving leads to wealth” playbook may no longer apply, and market rules are quietly changing.

Note: This article is for news information only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.