XRP and Bitcoin battle for the November rally crown, institutional funds become a key variable

As of November 12, both XRP and Bitcoin have demonstrated strong upward momentum. XRP’s price broke through the $2.40 level, with an increase of nearly 300% year-to-date, while Bitcoin held firm at the $103,000 level, doubling its price this year. The core drivers behind their gains differ: XRP benefited from favorable legal outcomes in the Ripple vs. US SEC dispute and the launch of the first spot ETFs, whereas Bitcoin relied on continuous institutional capital inflows.

Technical analysis indicates that if XRP breaks through the $2.80 resistance, it could quickly challenge the psychological $3.00 mark; Bitcoin needs to recover the critical $110,000 level to open a new journey toward $120,000. The remaining time in November will be a crucial window for the battle for leadership between these two assets.

XRP Regulatory Breakthrough and Ecosystem Expansion

XRP achieved a breakthrough in 2025, mainly due to significant improvements in the regulatory environment. The long-standing legal dispute between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) was decisively resolved in July, with the court ruling that XRP is not a security. This ruling directly led to the successful listing of the Canary Capital XRP spot ETF on Nasdaq, which attracted $138 million in the first week, providing institutional investors with a compliant exposure. Driven by this, XRP’s price once reached $2.65 on November 1, a seven-year high.

In terms of ecosystem development, Ripple actively promotes strategic partnerships and product innovation. The joint pilot of the RLUSD stablecoin settlement system with Mastercard and WebBank adds new functional dimensions to the XRP ledger. Meanwhile, asset management giants like Bitwise and Franklin Templeton have submitted their own XRP spot ETF applications, further strengthening market expectations for future capital inflows. On-chain data shows that whale addresses holding over 1 million XRP increased their holdings by 420 million XRP in the past 30 days, reflecting growing confidence among large investors.

Bitcoin Institutionalization and Market Position

Despite a recent 10% price correction, Bitcoin’s institutional adoption continues to expand in depth and breadth. Quarterly financial reports show that 47 new companies have added Bitcoin to their balance sheets, increasing total holdings to 12.8 million BTC, representing 6.1% of circulating supply. Pioneering firms like MicroStrategy continue to increase their holdings, and traditional asset managers have allocated over $85 billion through spot ETFs. This shift in institutional behavior is driven by the broader recognition of Bitcoin’s value storage properties amid global inflation.

Technical and capital flow analyses further support this outlook. On November 10, Bitcoin’s spot ETF saw a net inflow of $1.15 million, ending three consecutive weeks of outflows. Derivatives market data shows open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts rebounded to $72 billion, with funding rates remaining healthy, indicating no signs of excessive leverage. Analysts believe that the potential end of the US government shutdown could provide additional support for risk assets, with Bitcoin, as the benchmark asset of the crypto market, likely to benefit first from macroeconomic improvements.

Key Metrics Comparison of XRP and Bitcoin

Price Performance

• XRP current price: $2.43 (up 300% year-to-date)
• Bitcoin current price: $103,266 (up 100% year-to-date)
• XRP/Bitcoin exchange rate: 0.0000235

Institutional Participation

• XRP ETF inflow: $138 million
• Bitcoin ETF AUM: $85 billion
• Corporate treasury additions this quarter: 47 companies

Technical Structure Analysis and Price Forecast for Bitcoin and XRP

XRP’s daily chart shows a typical breakout pattern. After successfully holding above the $2.20 support, it is now testing resistance in the $2.50–2.60 range. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen from overbought levels of 72 to a healthy 58, accompanied by steadily increasing volume, indicating the market is digesting previous gains and accumulating new upward momentum. A successful break above the $2.80 neckline could target $3.20–3.50, aligning with the large open interest distribution across strike prices in options markets.

Bitcoin remains at a critical trend decision point. On the weekly chart, the price has solid support around $98,000, coinciding with the 50-week simple moving average and the 2024 high. Resistance at $110,000 is particularly important, as it is the location of the 200-day moving average and a dense trading zone before the October plunge. Derivatives data shows that professional traders are cautiously optimistic—Bitcoin options’ 25Delta skew remains at a positive 2.5%, indicating mild put option premiums and no signs of panic.

Sector Rotation and Allocation Strategies

From an internal sector rotation perspective, altcoin season may be brewing. Bitcoin dominance (the proportion of Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market) has fallen from 55% at the start of the year to 48%. Such changes often occur during periods of increased risk appetite. Historical data shows that when Bitcoin dominance drops below 45%, altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin by 35–60% over the following 90 days. As the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, XRP is often an early beneficiary of this rotation.

Based on this, investors might consider a dynamic allocation strategy: allocate 50% of the portfolio to Bitcoin as a core holding, 30% to XRP and other fundamentally strong altcoins, 10% to emerging tokens, and keep 10% in stablecoins for volatility opportunities. Specifically, after XRP breaks above $2.65, consider adding to positions with targets of $3.00–3.20. For Bitcoin, a dollar-cost averaging approach in the $100,000–$105,000 range is recommended. Risk management should include stop-loss levels at $2.20 for XRP and $95,000 for Bitcoin, corresponding to approximately 15% maximum drawdown.

Conclusion

The November showdown between XRP and Bitcoin reflects the maturing evolution of the crypto market—from a narrative-driven phase to a new stage supported by fundamentals and capital flows. Regardless of which asset ultimately leads, continuous institutional inflows and gradual regulatory improvements lay a solid foundation for industry health. For investors, understanding this structural shift and adjusting strategies accordingly is more meaningful than simply predicting short-term price movements.