XRP Today's News: Five consecutive declines halt bloodshed, US ISM data triggers rebound

XRP ends five consecutive declines, rising 1.90% on February 2 to close at $1.6192. The U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index exceeded expectations, boosting risk appetite and offsetting uncertainties from the White House crypto meeting. The meeting highlighted the deadlock between banks and the crypto industry over legislation on stablecoin yields. On the technical side, XRP found support at $1.5, a breakout above $2.0 would confirm a reversal, with a medium-term target of $2.5 and a long-term target of $3.0.

U.S. ISM Data Boosts Risk Appetite, XRP Rebounds

On Monday, February 2, the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index showed a broad expansion in manufacturing, boosting market demand for AI-related stocks and risk assets. Previously, concerns over AI-related spending and investment returns had pressured risk sentiment before the weekend trading. Strong U.S. economic indicators improved risk appetite, helping XRP stabilize despite regulatory hurdles highlighted in policy negotiations.

The ISM Manufacturing Index is a key leading indicator of U.S. manufacturing health, with readings above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. The data released in February exceeded market expectations, demonstrating the resilience of the U.S. economy. Such strong economic signals typically boost investor confidence, prompting capital flows from safe-haven assets to risk assets, benefiting the cryptocurrency market.

From a correlation perspective, cryptocurrency prices exhibit complex relationships with U.S. economic data. When economic data is strong and does not trigger a hawkish Fed shift, it generally favors cryptocurrencies, as it indicates ample liquidity and investor confidence. However, overly strong data raising inflation fears may delay rate cuts by the Fed, putting pressure on risk assets. Currently, the ISM data is in a “moderately strong” range, indicating a healthy economy without triggering expectations of monetary tightening, creating an ideal macro environment for XRP rebound.

Although five consecutive declines suggest a potential short-term trend reversal, the medium-term outlook remains bullish. Supported by ETF demand and expectations for market structure legislation, XRP’s medium to long-term prospects remain cautiously optimistic. On Monday, February 2, XRP rose 1.90%, partially recovering from the previous day’s 3.47% decline, closing at $1.6192. The token underperformed the overall crypto market, which rose 2.28%, but halting the decline itself is a positive signal.

White House Crypto Meeting Highlights Regulatory Obstacles

On February 2, representatives from the banking sector and the crypto community met with the U.S. government to seek common ground on legislation regarding stablecoin yields. Eleanor Terrett, host and reporter of “U.S. Cryptocurrency,” shared the latest developments, saying: “Everyone had a chance to speak, with crypto industry representatives and banking officials roughly in a 3:1 ratio. The crypto and AI czar David Sacks did not attend. The meeting was hosted by Patrick Witte, Executive Director of the Crypto Council for Innovation.”

However, the banking industry’s statement emphasized that reaching consensus on legislation related to stablecoin yields remains challenging. A press release from the banking trade coalition stated: “As we shared in the meeting, we must ensure that any legislation supports providing local loans to families and small businesses, promoting economic growth and safeguarding the stability of our financial system.”

Senior reporter Brendan Pedersen commented on the White House meeting: “People I spoke with at the White House crypto banking meeting told me that the two industries initially took very different approaches. Crypto representatives wanted to discuss specific yield solutions, while banking representatives mostly avoided details and were reluctant to discuss concrete solutions.”

Pedersen added: “I’m not saying that supporters of banks are playing tricks. This early distancing is a standard policy negotiation tactic. It’s just interesting how it contrasts sharply with an industry that is barely ‘legitimized’ in the U.S.”

Three Major Disagreements Between Banking and Crypto Industries

Stablecoin Yield Distribution: Crypto industry advocates believe users should earn yields, while banks want to prohibit or restrict it.

Regulatory Framework: Crypto industry demands innovation-friendly rules; banks seek compliance costs comparable to traditional banks.

Market Access: Crypto firms’ applications for banking licenses face lobbying resistance from banks.

If no compromise is reached on stablecoin yields, it could undermine hopes for comprehensive crypto regulation that fosters innovation while protecting consumers. As background, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee delayed voting on the Market Structure Bill draft. Coinbase withdrew support, citing that the draft eliminates stablecoin rewards and allows U.S. banks to “ban competitors.”

In 2023, Senator Roger Marshall admitted that he and Senator Elizabeth Warren drafted the Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act with the help of the American Bankers Association (ABA). The bill proposes establishing a framework similar to banking AML and CFT regulations, which could end DeFi’s competitiveness in traditional financial markets. Meanwhile, in 2025, the ABA requested the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to delay approving Ripple and Circle’s chartered bank licenses.

Technical Analysis and Short, Medium, Long-Term Targets

(Source: Trading View)

Last week’s reversal indicated the formation of a bearish trend, suggesting a short-term (1-4 weeks) negative outlook. XRP breaking below $1.75 signals a reversal of the short-term bullish outlook and negates the previous bullish short-term view. However, XRP found key support near $1.5 and rebounded to $1.60. If it falls below $1.5, it could test the psychological level at $1.0.

The recent sell-off caused XRP’s price to fall well below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. Nonetheless, some positive fundamentals continue to offset technical bearishness, supporting a medium-term bullish outlook. On the daily chart, breaking above $1.75, the focus will be on the 50-day moving average ($1.9436) and the $2.0 level. Sustained breakout above the 50-day MA would signal a reversal of the short-term upward trend and pave the way toward $2.2. After breaking $2.2, bulls will target the 200-day moving average ($2.2440).

Conversely, if the price breaks above $2.0, the upward trendline will come into play. Continued breakout above the trendline would indicate a trend reversal to bullish, negating the bearish structure and confirming a medium-term bullish bias.

Key Price Levels

Support: $1.50 (critical support), if broken, test $1.0 psychological level

Resistance: $1.75 (short-term), $2.0 (medium-term breakout point), $2.5 (medium-term target), $3.0 (long-term target)

50-day EMA: $1.9436 (trend reversal confirmation)

200-day EMA: $2.2440 (long-term trend boundary)

However, strong demand for XRP spot ETFs, expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Fed, hopes for progress on market structure legislation, and increased utility of XRP continue to support bullish medium- and long-term price forecasts. The medium-term (4-8 weeks) target is $2.5, and the long-term (8-12 weeks) target is $3.0. Passage of the Market Structure Bill in the U.S. Senate would confirm the long-term price target, and after 12 weeks, XRP could reach a new all-time high of $3.66. Once broken, the next 6 to 12 months’ target could reach $5.0.

Five Key Factors Driving XRP Price

Looking ahead, legislative developments related to cryptocurrencies will be crucial for XRP’s price outlook. Progress in the U.S. Senate Banking Committee on the Market Structure Bill draft could stimulate demand for XRP. However, geopolitical risks, U.S. economic data, central bank statements, and capital flows into XRP spot ETFs will also influence near-term price movements.

A dovish Fed rate path, along with the Bank of Japan’s cut to neutral rates (possibly between 1%-1.25%), will boost market sentiment. Strong demand for U.S. XRP spot ETFs and progress on the Market Structure Bill will further reinforce the medium-term bullish outlook. Overall, these events support a medium-term price rise to $2.5.

Major downside risks include: the Bank of Japan adopting a hawkish stance, raising neutral rates to 1.5%-2.5%, multiple rate hikes narrowing the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential, triggering yen carry trades; stronger U.S. economic data reducing expectations of rate cuts in H1 2026; delays or partisan opposition to the Market Structure Bill; and long-term net outflows from XRP spot ETF funds. These scenarios could pressure XRP demand, causing the price to fall below $1.5 and reaffirm a bearish trend.