CZ personally refutes the four major FUD rumors, claiming to have reduced confidence in the Bitcoin super cycle.

CZ responds to four major FUDs in live broadcast: fabricating Polymarket posts, misreading the “cancelled super cycle,” misinterpretation of Binance selling $1 billion worth of Bitcoin, and doubts about SAFU fund. He admits that confidence in the super cycle has “diminished but still possible,” attributing it to geopolitical turmoil. Clarifies that wallet balance changes are due to user withdrawals, and SAFU will buy in batches within 30 days; the $1.7 trillion market cap impact of $1 billion is only 0.002%.

CZ addresses each of the four major FUD rumors one by one

CZ posted on social media: “In the past few days, I’ve seen some pretty imaginative panic, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD).” He dissects the four recent viral rumors, starting with a fabricated screenshot of a Polymarket bet.

Rumor 1: Fake Polymarket Bet Incident

This fake post claims CZ bet on an event on Polymarket with a trading volume of up to $7 million, exciting some critics and worrying some supporters. CZ clarifies: “By the way, this activity doesn’t exist on Polymarket at all, nor in any prediction market. There’s no $7 million trading volume. If there were, I’d be the first to shoot myself in the foot. Of course, there are welcome bonuses and other good stuff. Or maybe next time I’ll wear a helmet in a selfie.”

Creating and spreading fake screenshots is common in crypto communities, especially targeting influential figures like CZ. Rumor creators often use photo editing software to forge transaction records or chat screenshots, spreading rapidly on social media. Since most people don’t verify, these false messages can cause market sentiment swings in a short time. CZ’s humorous response shows he’s seen such attacks many times.

Rumor 2: Misreading “CZ canceled the super cycle”

The second FUD stems from a misinterpretation of CZ’s words. Some claim “CZ canceled the super cycle,” implying he can unilaterally decide market direction. CZ responds: “Oh, if I had that ability, I wouldn’t be on CT with you guys. I guess I could just snap my fingers and turn it back, right? I’d be snapping all day.”

He clarifies his original statement was “I am less confident than before,” just that. An honest expression of his judgment, not a market prophecy or manipulation. Twisting a subtle change in confidence into a declaration of “canceling the super cycle” is clickbait. CZ emphasizes that Bitcoin’s market is determined by the collective actions of hundreds of millions worldwide; no single individual, even him, can “cancel” or “initiate” a market cycle.

Rumor 3: Misunderstanding about Binance selling $1 billion worth of Bitcoin

The third rumor claims “Binance sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.” CZ corrects: “No, it’s Binance users who sold $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.” This distinction is crucial. As an exchange, Binance itself doesn’t engage in speculative trading; changes in wallet balances reflect user activity, not company decisions.

CZ explains: “Binance wallet balances only change when users withdraw. Most users, even after buying or selling, keep their funds on Binance and continue using Binance wallets.” This means observed reductions in Binance wallets on-chain are mainly due to users transferring Bitcoin to personal wallets or other platforms, not Binance actively selling. This technical detail can confuse those unfamiliar with exchange mechanics but is vital for understanding market dynamics.

Rumor 4: Doubts about Binance’s SAFU fund buying Bitcoin

The fourth FUD targets Binance’s SAFU fund. Critics question: “Binance’s SAFU fund hasn’t shown any signs of buying Bitcoin after announcing it would convert to Bitcoin; we see no evidence of purchases.” CZ responds: “Binance said they will complete the transactions within 30 days. I guess their plan is to buy in batches over 30 days, transferring funds to the target address near the end or weekly. You won’t see them buying on DEX. Binance is the most liquid CEX globally.”

CZ further explains from a math perspective: “And what do you think a $1 billion investment over 30 days would do to a $1.7 trillion market cap? That’s 1/1,700/30… do the math. It’s just a gesture. Whether it can boost confidence, you decide.”

According to this calculation, $1 billion spread over 30 days is about $33.33 million daily, only 0.002% of Bitcoin’s $1.7 trillion market cap. Statistically negligible, unlikely to cause a real price impact. CZ admits this is more symbolic, showing Binance’s long-term confidence in Bitcoin rather than price manipulation.

CZ admits confidence has decreased but the super cycle remains possible

According to Forbes, CZ openly stated during Binance’s social media live: “A few weeks ago, I was quite optimistic about Bitcoin’s super cycle, but now, given all the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) circulating in the community—and all the stirred-up emotions—I have to say my confidence has decreased.”

The key point is “confidence decreased,” not “no longer believe.” He does not deny the possibility of a super cycle; he emphasizes “it still might happen,” just that his personal certainty has shifted from “quite optimistic” to “cautiously optimistic.” This subtle adjustment reflects a rational assessment of the current market environment, not an emotional turn to pessimism.

CZ points out the main factors influencing his judgment: “The more FUD you stir up, the more chaos you create in the community, the greater the negative impact. Currently, we are living in a period of intense geopolitical turbulence worldwide. It’s hard to predict what will happen next.” This reveals two levels of concern.

First, the FUD effect within the community. The crypto market heavily relies on sentiment and narratives; when negative news (true or false) spreads wildly, it significantly impacts investor behavior. Panic selling, margin liquidations, capital withdrawals—these chain reactions triggered by FUD can turn manageable corrections into deep bear markets. As an industry leader, CZ worries not about technical or fundamental deterioration but about collective psychological panic potentially self-fulfilling.

Second, macro geopolitical risks. Early 2026 global situation is full of uncertainties: US-China trade relations, Middle East conflicts, European recession risks, diverging central bank policies, etc. Any could trigger systemic sell-offs of risk assets. While Bitcoin is seen by some as a safe haven, during liquidity crunches it often gets sold first, creating a paradox that makes prediction extremely difficult.

The logic of Bitcoin’s super cycle still holds

Although CZ admits confidence has waned, he does not abandon the super cycle theory. From a fundamental perspective, supporting factors remain: ongoing global monetary expansion, institutional adoption acceleration, Bitcoin ETF inflows, halving supply shocks, and the long-term fragility of the dollar credit system.

CZ’s adjustment mainly reflects uncertainty in timing, not direction. The super cycle might not arrive as scheduled in early 2026; it could be delayed to 2027 or later, but the long-term upward trend remains. This pragmatic attitude is more valuable than blind optimism.

Historically, Bitcoin has experienced multiple “delayed super cycles.” The bull run after 2016 halving only exploded in 2017; after 2020 halving, the peak was in 2021. If we are truly entering a correction phase now, it could instead build momentum for a stronger rally next time. CZ’s cautious stance reminds investors to avoid excessive leverage, keep cash reserves, and wait for clearer signals before adding positions.

CZ’s full stance on the super cycle

Past: Quite optimistic a few weeks ago

Now: Confidence decreased but not denied

Reason: FUD effects + geopolitical uncertainty

Conclusion: Still possible, but timing and path more uncertain

For ordinary investors, CZ’s message is: maintain long-term faith, lower short-term expectations; continue accumulating but control position sizes; focus on fundamentals but don’t ignore emotional impacts. This balanced mindset is key to surviving turbulent markets.