PEPE crashes 66% bottom signal! RSI drops below 30, is it time to buy the dip in meme coins?

PEPE drops to $0.000004118, down 14% over the week. Santiment’s MVRV long-short difference indicator has been negative for several months and is about to turn positive, indicating long-term holders are regaining dominance. RSI has fallen below 30 into oversold territory, testing the $0.0000040 support level. Short-term target is $0.00000450, end of Q1 $0.0000070, and year-end $0.000020.

MVRV Long-Short Difference Turning Positive Signals Trend Reversal

(Source: Santiment)

The most critical on-chain indicator for PEPE is Santiment’s MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) long-short difference. This metric tracks the profit and loss status comparison between long-term holders and short-term traders. When the value is above zero, it indicates long-term holders are in profit, often signaling an upcoming market shakeout and a strong rebound in meme coin prices.

After several months of negative readings, the MVRV long-short difference is now approaching zero and about to turn positive. This transition from negative to positive reflects a shift in market sentiment from short-term speculators to long-term believers. When short-term traders panic-sell at a loss, long-term holders quietly absorb the supply, with their average cost gradually falling below the market price, creating a potential cushion for upward pressure.

Historical data confirms the effectiveness of this indicator. PEPE has previously experienced rebounds from deep negative MVRV readings before major rallies. In March 2024, after the indicator turned positive, PEPE surged over 300% in the following two months. Another positive turn in October 2024 also triggered a multi-week rally. The current pattern closely resembles these historical turning points, suggesting a new upward cycle may be imminent.

From a market psychology perspective, a positive MVRV long-short difference means “weak hands” have exited, and “strong hands” have completed accumulation. Meme coin price movements heavily depend on holder structure; when dominated by long-term believers, selling pressure diminishes, and any buying can easily push prices higher. Conversely, when short-term traders dominate, the market becomes fragile, and even minor shocks can trigger panic selling. PEPE is currently undergoing this healthy restructuring of holder composition.

The reassertion of long-term holders not only improves supply-demand dynamics but also provides psychological support for price floors. These holders are usually insensitive to short-term volatility; their buying is often based on faith in PEPE’s community culture and long-term narrative rather than technical or news-driven short-term factors. When this group begins accumulating, it often signals the formation of a bottom.

Technical Oversold Signals and Key Support Testing

(Source: Trading View)

From PEPE’s price chart, it appears the meme coin has bottomed out and is rebounding, with most indicators near their lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to 30 in the past few hours, entering oversold territory, and PEPE has shown signs of a rebound, rising 1% in the last hour. RSI breaking below 30 is a classic oversold signal, indicating selling pressure has been fully released and a technical bounce could occur at any time.

The MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator is also at a low point, with both the fast and slow lines deep in negative territory, showing downward momentum has been exhausted. Historically, when MACD is at such lows, it often signals a trend reversal. Although MACD is a lagging indicator, its alignment with RSI’s oversold condition forms a double technical buy signal.

Looking at actual price action, PEPE is testing its long-term support at $0.0000040. This level has been validated multiple times over the past months, each touch triggering varying degrees of rebound. It is likely to bounce from current levels and rise quickly, but a further breakdown below this critical zone could indicate a severe decline.

The importance of the $0.0000040 support is not only technical but also psychological. Many PEPE holders see this as the “last line of defense”; a breakdown could trigger stop-losses and panic selling. As long as it holds, market confidence can be maintained, especially with the MVRV long-short difference turning positive and RSI bouncing from oversold levels, forming a triple buy signal. The current price is $0.000004118, only about 3% above the support, making this a critical moment for both bulls and bears.

Short, Medium, and Long-Term PEPE Price Forecast Path

Combining the MVRV long-short difference, RSI oversold signals, and support testing, PEPE’s price outlook remains optimistic. In the short term, next week PEPE could dip to $0.00000450 to confirm the bottom. This dip will clear remaining panic selling and set the stage for a genuine rebound. If during this process the MVRV long-short difference turns positive, it will confirm that long-term holders have fully taken control of the market.

PEPE Price Stages Forecast

Short-term (next week): Retest $0.00000450 and rebound

Mid-term (end of Q1): Target $0.0000070 (about 70% increase from current price)

Long-term (second half of the year): Potentially reach $0.000010 (about 143% increase)

Year-end: Optimistic scenario up to $0.000020 (about 386% increase)

The target of $0.0000070 by the end of Q1 is based on a reasonable technical rebound. The move from $0.0000040 support to $0.0000070 represents a 75% increase, a common rebound magnitude for meme coins. Key catalysts include confirmation of MVRV long-short difference turning positive, RSI breaking above 50, and MACD forming a golden cross. If these technical conditions are met within February, the probability of reaching this target by the end of Q1 is very high.

The $0.000010 target in H2 requires stronger fundamental support. This level implies PEPE needs to regain market attention and trading volume. Possible catalysts include a broader meme coin revival, creative marketing by the PEPE community, or a new bull market cycle in crypto. If Bitcoin breaks new highs in H2, capital often flows into altcoins and meme coins, with PEPE as a leading beneficiary.

The $0.000020 forecast for year-end is an optimistic scenario. This would mean a roughly 5x increase from current levels, which sounds aggressive but is not impossible in meme coin history. PEPE surged over 10,000% from lows during the 2023 bull market, and between March and May 2024, it rose over 400% in just two months. The key is whether enough strong narratives and community momentum emerge; if PEPE can again become a viral social media topic, such explosive growth could repeat.

However, investors must understand the high-risk nature of meme coins. PEPE’s value depends entirely on community consensus and market sentiment, with no real utility or intrinsic value backing it. Such assets can deliver outsized gains in bull markets but also experience devastating declines in bear markets. The recent 66% drop exemplifies this volatility. Therefore, any PEPE investment should be regarded as high-risk speculation, with only funds that can be fully lost invested.