JPMorgan: Bitcoin futures become oversold and hit bottom, with $8.7 billion shifting into safe-haven gold as investors seek stability amid market volatility.

JPMorgan report indicates that Bitcoin futures RSI has fallen to 22.4, signaling deep oversold conditions, with open interest down 15%. During the same period, capital inflows into gold ETFs reached $8.7 billion and silver ETFs $2.3 billion, leading to overbought conditions in precious metals. Investors have been withdrawing from Bitcoin and shifting into gold since August last year, reflecting economic uncertainty. An RSI of 22.4 is an extreme reading suggesting selling pressure is nearing an end; if sentiment reverses, Bitcoin could rebound.

Bitcoin Futures RSI Drops to 22.4, Entering Extreme Oversold Territory

JPMorgan points out that the relative strength index (RSI) for Bitcoin futures has fallen to 22.4, an extreme oversold signal. Typically, an RSI below 30 is considered oversold, and a reading of 22.4 indicates that selling pressure has reached historically extreme levels. From a technical analysis perspective, such extreme overselling often signals a price bottom and potential rebound.

RSI measures the momentum of price changes, ranging from 0 to 100. When RSI drops below 20, it indicates a panic sell-off in the market, with nearly all willing sellers having exited. This state cannot last long, as selling pressure will eventually exhaust itself; once sellers are depleted, any new buying can easily push prices higher. Historical data shows that Bitcoin RSI falling below 25 is rare; past instances have often led to significant rebounds within weeks.

Additionally, since Q4 2025, open interest in Bitcoin futures has decreased by about 15%. A decline in open interest has two implications: first, many traders have closed positions and exited the market, reducing participation; second, leverage positions have been liquidated, decreasing market fragility. When open interest drops sharply, markets tend to enter a more stable phase, with remaining participants being more committed holders rather than high-leverage speculators.

JPMorgan’s Bitcoin outlook report suggests that the combination of RSI at 22.4 and a 15% decline in open interest forms a double oversold signal. Historically, such technical setups often mark the end of a downtrend. Therefore, some analysts believe Bitcoin may be near a bottom and poised for a rebound. However, oversold conditions do not guarantee an immediate bounce; prices may oscillate at the bottom for weeks until new catalysts emerge.

$8.7 Billion Capital Exodus into Gold and Silver

Another key trend revealed in JPMorgan’s report is massive capital rotation. Investors have poured approximately $8.7 billion into gold ETFs and about $2.3 billion into silver ETFs, totaling over $11 billion moving from risk assets into traditional safe-haven assets. These strong inflows have further driven up futures prices, leading JPMorgan to consider both metals overbought.

This capital rotation is closely tied to macroeconomic changes. Many macro factors explain this shift: global economic uncertainty remains high, interest rate expectations fluctuate, and geopolitical risks intensify. As a result, many investors prefer safer assets like gold and silver, which are well-regarded safe havens worldwide.

Central bank gold purchases also play a crucial role. Many countries continue to increase gold reserves, supporting higher gold prices and demand. In 2025, central banks of China, India, Turkey, and Poland significantly increased gold buying, indicating an accelerating de-dollarization trend. When sovereign nations view gold as a strategic asset, demand remains persistent and rigid, providing solid support for gold prices.

The $8.7 billion inflow into gold ETFs is remarkable. By comparison, during the peak of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF interest in 2024, monthly net inflows peaked at around $6 billion. This reversal in capital flows indicates a fundamental change in investor preferences away from risk assets. Gold and silver, as traditional safe havens, naturally attract capital during economic uncertainty, but such large inflows also suggest heightened market concerns about the future.

From a relative valuation perspective, the overbought status of gold and silver also carries risks. JPMorgan notes that the futures RSI for precious metals has entered overbought territory, indicating potential short-term profit-taking pressure. Silver, in particular, has surged nearly 40% since October, increasing the likelihood of a correction. If technical adjustments occur, some capital may flow back into risk assets like Bitcoin, which are currently oversold.

Reversal of Capital Flows Could Be a Bitcoin Catalyst

According to JPMorgan’s Bitcoin outlook report, investors have been gradually withdrawing capital from Bitcoin and reallocating into gold and silver. This trend has persisted since August last year, leading to a significant shift in market dynamics. However, this trend will not last forever. When precious metals prices correct due to overbought conditions or when economic outlook concerns ease, capital could flow back into Bitcoin.

JPMorgan does not dismiss Bitcoin’s role. The bank notes that during periods of liquidity tightening, Bitcoin remains a viable alternative. This assessment is noteworthy coming from a traditional financial giant. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has criticized Bitcoin multiple times, but the bank’s research division remains objective, acknowledging Bitcoin’s value in certain scenarios. This subtle shift in attitude reflects growing institutional recognition of Bitcoin’s potential.

Market reactions point to a possible rebound for Bitcoin. Early social media responses show mixed views. Some traders see Bitcoin as oversold and a good buy, while others remain cautious due to waning momentum. Although the technical oversold signals are strong, a fundamental catalyst is needed to trigger a genuine rebound.

Three Potential Triggers for Bitcoin Rebound

Technical correction in gold and silver: Capital flows from overbought precious metals back into Bitcoin

Macroeconomic risk easing: Geopolitical tensions cooling or economic data improving risk appetite

Bitcoin futures oversold recovery: RSI rising from 22.4 above 30, triggering technical buy signals

Overall, JPMorgan’s outlook indicates a clear shift in market behavior. While precious metals are likely to lead the market in the short term, a sentiment reversal could quickly bring Bitcoin back into focus. Analysts suggest that if market pressures ease, Bitcoin could rebound. The key is patience—waiting for a turning point rather than panicking during oversold conditions.