Bottoming out and aiming for a rebound by the end of the year! Standard Chartered predicts: Bitcoin may drop to $50,000, and Ethereum could fall to $1,400

Standard Chartered released a report on Thursday, once again lowering its short-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market and warning that there could be further declines in the coming months, even a final “capitulation sell-off,” but still optimistic about a recovery before the end of the year.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Head of Digital Asset Research at Standard Chartered, stated that the market will continue to experience pain amid ongoing macroeconomic headwinds:

I believe digital asset prices will face more pain in the coming months and ultimately see a wave of selling. Before Kevin Warsh officially takes over the Federal Reserve, the overall economic environment will be difficult to provide sufficient support.

Kendrick estimates that if selling pressure continues, Bitcoin could fall to $50,000 or lower, and Ethereum could drop to $1,400. However, he also emphasized that these levels would be excellent “entry points,” and he expects Bitcoin to rebound to $100,000 by the end of the year, with Ethereum reaching $4,000.
It is noteworthy that this is the latest in a series of target price cuts by Standard Chartered. The bank previously cut Bitcoin’s target from $300,000 to $150,000 in December last year, and now down to $100,000; Ethereum’s target was also slashed from $7,500 to $4,000.
In addition to the two major cryptocurrencies, Kendrick also revised down the forecasts for leading altcoins by the end of 2026, mostly based on “re-estimating at current market prices,” aligning their relative performance with Bitcoin and Ethereum trends:

• Solana (SOL) target price by the end of the year lowered from $250 to $135;
• Ripple (XRP) target price cut from $8.00 to $2.80;
• Binance Coin (BNB) target price reduced from $1,755 to $1,050;
• Avalanche (AVAX) target price slashed from $100 to $18.

Two Main Culprits: ETF Lock-In and Failed Rate Cut Expectations
Why is the outlook so bearish for the short-term crypto market? Kendrick points out two key factors.
First is the loss of confidence among ETF investors. The report notes that Bitcoin spot ETF holdings have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC since their peak in October 2025. Even more concerning, the average cost basis for current on-exchange buyers is around $90,000, meaning a large portion of holdings are “seriously trapped.” These investors are now more inclined to sell on rallies or cut losses rather than buy the dip.
Second is the overall economic situation suppressing market sentiment. Recent US economic data has been mixed, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts until after leadership changes in June. This uncertainty makes it difficult for cryptocurrencies to attract new inflows of capital in the coming months.
Despite the short-term bearish outlook, Kendrick emphasizes that the long-term prospects for the crypto market remain solid. This wave of decline is relatively mild compared to past bear markets, which saw systemic risks like the Terra/Luna collapse and FTX bankruptcy in 2022. Currently, there are no signs of a wave of platform failures, indicating that increased institutional participation has made the market more resilient.