From 12:15 to 12:30 on February 16, 2026 (UTC), Bitcoin (BTC) prices experienced a slight decline, with candlestick returns recording -0.26%. During this time window, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after experiencing its largest correction since February. Overall market attention increased, but trading remained cautious. Short-term volatility contracted, yet trading sentiment clearly leaned toward waiting.
The main drivers of this price movement were the residual effects of leverage unwinding and a slowdown in on-chain capital inflows. Futures open interest continued to decline from high levels, with leverage exposure decreasing by over 20% from early February to mid-month, leaving residual selling pressure from forced liquidations. Additionally, the slowdown in stablecoin supply growth and ETF capital inflows reduced new buying power in the spot market. The fear and greed index stood at only 12/100, indicating extreme panic, with incremental capital hesitant to support upward momentum.
Furthermore, the global risk asset correlation adjustment created resonant pressure, as U.S. stocks, small caps, and precious metals also experienced rapid declines in mid-February, spreading a risk-averse atmosphere to cryptocurrencies. On-chain capital showed a clear wait-and-see stance, with weakening ETF inflows and sluggish spot buying. Meanwhile, active trading on decentralized exchanges and liquidity divergence across mainstream platforms made short-term rebounds difficult to sustain, and the overall market remained under downward pressure. Additionally, Bitcoin’s price has deviated from its long-term moving average by -2.88σ; although some capital is betting on mean reversion, the momentum remains limited.
Currently, Bitcoin’s volatility has significantly contracted, and the market structure shows no signs of imbalance, but there remains a risk of further downside in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor ETF and large on-chain capital flows, changes in stablecoin supply, and the transmission of global macro sentiment. Also, pay attention to key support levels and signs of new capital entering the market. Short-term trading should strengthen risk management. For real-time market data and in-depth analysis, please continue to follow market developments.
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