On Polymarket, the probability that Opinion's FDV exceeds $250 million on its first day of trading is 87%

The negative probability of "Court orders Trump to refund tariffs" on Polymarket surpasses 80%

According to data from the prediction platform Polymarket, the current market believes that by July 2026, the probability of Trump being ordered by the court to refund tariffs is only 19%. The U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump's trade tax policies are illegal, and Trump expressed dissatisfaction, mentioning that there are alternative plans.

Polymarket Builders' weekly trading volume has exceeded $100 million for three consecutive weeks.

According to analyst defioasis.eth, Polymarket Builders reached a trading volume of $125 million in the past week, surpassing $100 million for three consecutive weeks. Meanwhile, betmoar accounts for 50.6% of the market share with a trading volume of over $550 million. Polymtrade became the first builder to surpass 10,000 traders.

Investor Nic Carter: predicts that the market is still immature, facing issues such as insider trading, market fragmentation, and a lack of natural buyers and sellers

Investor Nic Carter posted an analysis predicting the current market situation, believing that despite potential in the future, it still faces structural issues such as market fragmentation and insider trading, which could lead to liquidity shortages and declining user confidence. Currently, prediction markets mainly rely on sports betting, and fairness issues in non-sports sectors are concerning.

The probability that Bitcoin will decline to $55,000 this year is as high as 73%.

ChainCatcher reports that, according to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $55,000 by 2026 is as high as 73%, while the probability of reaching $100,000 on the upside is only 38%.

Netherlands imposes heavy penalty on Polymarket! Illegally providing prediction market services, potentially facing a fine of up to 840,000 euros

The Dutch gambling authority Ksa has issued a cease and desist order and fined Polymarket for providing gambling services in the Netherlands without a license, facing a penalty of €420,000 per week, with a maximum of €840,000. This incident has sparked legal controversy over whether prediction markets are considered gambling. Ksa emphasizes that unlicensed platforms are not allowed to operate in the market and that prediction markets may pose social risks, which could influence future regulatory trends.

The Netherlands bans Polymarket, deeming it illegal gambling. Prediction markets are facing setbacks across Europe.

The Dutch gambling regulatory authority KSA has classified Polymarket as illegal gambling, requiring it to cease operations locally and imposing a fine of €420,000 per week. The article discusses the legal positioning and regulatory trends of prediction markets, showing that Europe is tightening its stance compared to the more lenient approach in the United States, and emphasizes the regulatory challenges faced by Polymarket and the double-edged sword effect of globalization.