Senator Chris Murphy questions insider trading related to Iran airstrike predictions in the prediction market, with million-dollar bets sparking controversy over "White House corruption"
On March 5, according to Decrypt, prediction markets related to U.S. military actions against Iran have recently sparked political controversy. Democratic Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut publicly stated that large bets placed hours before U.S. airstrikes on Iran may involve insider information about military decisions and accused such behavior of potentially constituting corruption—“profiting from war.”
In a video posted on X, Chris Murphy said that some betting accounts appeared to accurately predict the outcome of the military action before it occurred. He pointed out that at least six large accounts placed concentrated bets before the U.S. launched the airstrike on Iran, earning approximately $1 million in related predictions. Murphy believes this suggests some insiders might be using sensitive information to participate in geopolitical prediction markets and gain huge profits.
Blockchain data analysis firm Bubblemaps previously revealed suspicious transactions related to the prediction question, “Will the U.S. launch an airstrike on Iran before February 28, 2026?” Data shows that some wallets heavily bought “Yes” predictions hours before the explosion in Tehran. One account purchased over 560,000 contracts at about $0.108 each, and after the event was confirmed, settled at $1, earning nearly $560,000 in a single trade.
On-chain data indicates that as Middle East tensions escalate, the funds in related geopolitical prediction markets have rapidly increased. Data compiled by Dune Analytics shows that, as of the week ending March 1, traders invested approximately $425.4 million in these geopolitical event predictions, significantly higher than the $163.9 million invested the previous week. Meanwhile, The New York Times analysis pointed out that at least 150 accounts bet over $1,000 before the military action, with about 16 accounts ultimately earning more than $100,000.
Chris Murphy said he is pushing for new legislation to restrict prediction markets that speculate on sensitive government decisions. He believes that allowing markets to bet on wars or military actions could enable some individuals to influence policy decisions for financial gain, posing potential risks to national security.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Senate recently rejected a bipartisan War Powers Resolution by a vote of 53 to 47, which aimed to limit Trump’s ability to continue military actions against Iran without congressional approval. As tensions in the Middle East persist, prediction markets related to war, transparency in political decision-making, and potential insider trading are prompting broader discussions among U.S. politicians and the public.
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