Bitcoin Falls Below $71,000 as Iran Ceasefire Frays Within 48 Hours and Oil Rebounds - Unchained

Bitcoin fell to $70,981 on Thursday, as the two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire that triggered Tuesday’s broad market rally began showing serious cracks less than 48 hours after it was announced. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday evening that three clauses of the ceasefire proposal had been contravened, without specifying which. The Strait of Hormuz — the reopening of which was the centerpiece condition of the deal — remained effectively closed to normal commercial tanker traffic. Brent crude rebounded roughly 2% to approximately $97, reversing a portion of the more-than-10% single-day collapse on Wednesday that had been the commodity’s worst drop in six years.

Bitcoin’s move was comparatively muted: down 0.5% over 24 hours, still up 6.1% on the week, and holding within the months-long $65,000–$73,000 trading range it has occupied since the conflict began. The altcoin market felt more pain. Ether fell 2.6% to $2,180 after leading the ceasefire rally with a 5.2% weekly gain. Solana’s SOL dropped 3.1% to $81.96. XRP lost 3% to $1.33, and dogecoin slid 3.4% to $0.091. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9%, reversing a portion of Wednesday’s surge that had been the index’s best single day in a year.

This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.

Subscribe here to get these updates in your email for free

QCP Capital had flagged the risk Wednesday, writing that the ceasefire was “a pause rather than a durable settlement, with the ceasefire conditional on how Iran manages passage through Hormuz over the coming weeks.” That caution proved warranted. The firm also noted that the “physical damage narrative has not gone away” — a reference to the significant energy infrastructure damage sustained by the U.S., Israel, and Iran over five weeks of conflict, which analysts say could keep oil near $100 regardless of any diplomatic agreement.

The macro backdrop adds an additional headwind. Global risk assets face what some analysts are calling “uncoordinated tightening” as major central banks hold rates higher for longer, reinforcing downward pressure on speculative assets. Bitcoin’s net position remains positive on the week, but the path to a sustained breakout above $73,000 — the ceiling of the conflict-era range — depends heavily on whether the ceasefire holds long enough for energy markets to stabilize and diplomatic talks to make meaningful progress at the weekend session in Islamabad.