Bitcoin is hovering around the $68,000 threshold, and the risk of further downside is increasing as whales sell and demand remains weak.

Gate News: Bitcoin’s price has pulled back to around $68,000. After multiple failed attempts to break through the $70,000 level, market momentum has clearly weakened. The current price remains within the $65,000 to $73,000 range of consolidation, but the risk of testing the lower end of the range is rising.

On-chain data platform Glassnode shows that the recent price rebound lacks support from trading volume and active addresses, indicating limited market participation and reflecting ongoing weakness on the demand side. At the same time, liquidity firm Caladan notes that large holders are continuing to reduce their positions, meaning Bitcoin’s price action relies more on macro capital flows and derivatives-driven factors rather than real buying demand from the spot market.

Signals from the derivatives market are also leaning toward caution. Options data shows that demand for downside protection has increased; implied volatility has remained consistently higher than realized volatility, suggesting investors are positioning in advance for potentially sharp volatility. The negative gamma structure formed near $68,000 could cause market makers to be forced into passive selling when prices fall, thereby amplifying the downside move.

If key support is broken, the market may enter an accelerated sell-off phase. Analysts believe that once the price falls below the lower end of the range, there is room for a pullback toward $60,000. Prediction platform Polymarket data shows that the market’s probability expectations for falling below $65,000 in April have risen to 68%, while expectations of a move to $80,000 have cooled noticeably.

The current Bitcoin market exhibits the characteristics of “stable on the surface, fragile underneath.” If there is no influx of new capital or an improvement in the macro environment, the price structure may be difficult to sustain, and near-term performance will depend heavily on how key support levels hold up.