Bitcoin rises, Dubai property prices plummet: retreating over 18% from February highs, war impacts global asset allocation

On March 10, it was reported that since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, Bitcoin (BTC) prices have continued to rebound, while Dubai’s real estate market has experienced a significant decline. The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Real Estate Index closed at 13,353 points on Monday, down 18.1% from 16,306 points on February 27, nearly erasing all gains since the beginning of the year. In contrast, Bitcoin, which was at $65,492 at the start of the conflict, briefly fell to $63,000 before quickly rebounding to $69,000, a total increase of approximately 5.4%.

The shock was triggered by Iran launching missiles at Dubai airports, luxury hotels, and civilian areas, prompting UAE regulators to close the stock exchange for two days to prevent panic selling. The sharp decline in Dubai’s real estate market was also driven by pressure from foreign capital withdrawals, with private jet demand surging by at least 300%, as many high-net-worth investors quickly left the region. Emaar Properties’ stock price dropped from 17 dirhams to 13.30 dirhams, a 22% decline, and Aldar Properties fell 5% on the day the market reopened.

Despite Dubai’s long-standing crypto-friendly policies attracting numerous crypto companies and many centralized exchanges establishing offices locally, the war has increased regional risks, severely impacting the stability of the real estate market. Secondary market data shows that some property prices have fallen by more than 10%, with an average decline of about 4.9%.

Analysts point out that the decline in Dubai property prices is also related to expectations of a surge in future supply. Fitch previously warned that supply issues alone could lead to a 15% drop in prices, and the number of new apartments expected to be built in the second half of 2026 is projected to increase sharply, even as demand rapidly decreases. In contrast, Bitcoin, despite its high volatility, has become an asset of interest to investors due to its liquidity and status as a global safe haven amid the war.

Overall, the Iran conflict has not only reshaped regional risk dynamics but also had a profound impact on global asset allocation. High-risk events have driven activity in the cryptocurrency market, while Dubai’s real estate market, heavily reliant on foreign capital, has come under significant pressure, highlighting the differing impacts of war on traditional and digital assets.