Can Ethereum’s “Megawhale” betting $2.6 billion stop a pullback? ETH could face a 43% downside risk

Gate News update: The price of Ethereum (ETH) is trading around $2,055, maintaining the 8-hour rising channel that has been in place since February 24, but technical signals suggest that the risk of a potential pullback is building. The Smart Money Index (SMI) shows that informed investors are still watching from the sidelines, and the doji candlestick pattern on the 8-hour chart also reflects hesitation between buyers and sellers; the pattern resembles the structure seen before ETH suffered a $3,042 crash of 43% in January.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) further reinforces the bearish signal. While a new high has been made within the channel, the RSI is showing a bearish divergence downward, indicating weakening price momentum. At the same time, on-chain data shows that Ethereum whale wallets have continued to accumulate since March 24, increasing holdings by about 1.29 million ETH, with a market value of roughly $2.6 billion. However, historical experience is a reminder that whale accumulation did not prevent the January crash, and this round of accumulation may likewise fail to provide meaningful support.

Technically, ETH’s current price is between the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at $2,093 and the 0.618 retracement level at $2,024, with the $2,024 zone acting as key support. Once the daily close falls below this level, the rising channel structure will be damaged, and the next target would be $1,925, with a further possible drop to around $1,800. Only if the price rebounds to $2,162 or higher can it confirm that the bullish structure is still intact.

Traders need to watch the strength of support at the bottom of the channel, as well as the RSI and Smart Money trends. While continued whale buying offers some psychological support, weak price momentum and potential macro pressure could trigger a short-term pullback. Investors should carefully evaluate the actual impact of the $2.6 billion whale bet on Ethereum and keep an eye on whether key price levels break up or break down, as this will determine ETH’s next move.