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Analysts: The Fed's divergences are evident and the inflation issue is worth following.
According to Deep Tide TechFlow news, on November 14, several Fed officials hinted simultaneously that they are cautious about the possibility of a rate cut in December. While they are still concerned about inflation, they believe that after two rate cuts this year, there are signs of relative stability in the labor market. These officials' statements have led the market to lower the probability of a December rate cut to below 50%. Bob Savage, the head of macro strategy at NYCB, stated, “There are clear divisions within the Fed, and several officials acknowledged that there isn't much reliable data at the moment. It is obviously correct to focus on inflation since the inflation rate has remained at around 3%.” George Cipolloni, a portfolio manager at Mutual Asset Management, pointed out, “Inflation has been quite stubborn. We heard some interesting comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant, who has abandoned some food tariffs. Frankly, I think this is an acknowledgment that they made mistakes on the tariff issue. We are indeed seeing weakness in the labor market, which is quite apparent, but it's still far from enough in terms of cooling inflation. Therefore, the Fed is currently in a bit of a dilemma.” ( Jin10 )