12.26 BTC Market Analysis#2025Gate年度账单 $BTC ‌$ETH ‌ - Core conclusion: Currently, the bulls are losing momentum, and the downward trend is obvious. Focus on shorting during rebounds, strictly control position sizes and stop-losses, and avoid liquidity risks. I. Market Analysis - BTC (current price approximately 87,115, 24h -0.48%) - Resistance: 87,600-88,500 (key moving averages + previous support turned resistance) - Support: 86,400-86,500; if broken, look towards 85,500-85,000 - Indicators: Moving averages under pressure, lower highs, shrinking volume, MACD/RSI leaning bearish, bears are dominant - ETH (current price approximately 2,897, 24h -1.68%) - Resistance: 2,920-2,940 (short-term moving averages + dense trading zones) - Support: 2,865-2,820; if broken, look towards 2,800-2,780 - Indicators: 50/200-period moving averages in a bearish alignment, weakening indicators, clearer bearish trend II. Live Trading Operations (light positions ≤2%, strict stop-loss) - BTC Short Strategy - Entry: Short on rebounds to 87,600-87,800 (gradual position building, total position ≤2%) - Stop-loss: 88,300 (exit if price effectively breaks through resistance zone) - Take profit: first target 86,400; second target 85,500; take profit in stages - ETH Short Strategy - Entry: Short on rebounds to 2,920-2,930 (gradual position building, total position ≤2%) - Stop-loss: 2,950 (exit if price effectively breaks through resistance zone) - Take profit: first target 2,865; second target 2,820; take profit in stages - Risk Reminder: Today, BTC options worth $2.37 billion are expiring. Be cautious of increased volatility; do not chase shorts on volume breakdowns of support, to avoid getting caught in short-term rebounds and "flying knives." III. Position Holding and Risk Control - Position: Mainly in stablecoins, short positions ≤2%, avoid heavy positions and overleveraging

Current market snapshot: roughly 70% of ETH derivatives open interest across major platforms is sitting in net long territory. What's catching traders' attention? Massive whale accumulation is squeezing available supply, while exchange holdings hit levels we haven't seen in this cycle. The combination signals either serious conviction building or a setup worth monitoring closely.

Word on the street: a major crypto fund is gearing up for another $1 billion Ethereum purchase. Jack Yi from Trend Research flagged this incoming liquidity event and threw out a cautionary take—shorting ETH right now looks risky. The reasoning? With this scale of buy pressure potentially hitting the market, existing short positions could face real squeeze dynamics. Whether this materializes as expected or gets timed differently, the signal matters. Big money moves like this tend to ripple through derivatives markets, so traders holding bearish bets on Ethereum might want to recalibrate their risk.