Bitcoin market has been a bit awkward recently—struggling to break through the 90,000 mark after several days of back-and-forth, and instead starting to turn downward. The current situation is indeed uncertain. But from a liquidity perspective, the most reasonable scenario should be: first a pullback to around 80,000, shaking out the less committed longs, and then possibly a decent rebound targeting 94,000 to 98,000. However, don’t let your guard down. The market could be more complicated than expected; a decline may not go smoothly, and an increase may not be straightforward, with a high probability of repeated fluctuations. So the current strategy is: if you are heavily invested, consider reducing your position appropriately during this opportunity. Lower your holding risk and leave yourself more flexibility.

What is this market trend all about? Some see it as a joke, some as a prophecy, and others say it's an investor counterattack initiated by the community. Li Xiaolai's words hit hard—no matter how foolish the consensus, it can still become a consensus. Recently, Meme coins in the Chinese ecosystem have been gaining tremendous momentum, with online bets on whether they can really hit 100,000x, and whether Meme coins can escape the fate of being exploited by Twitter influencers. Currently, the direction of $BTC and $ETH has become the weather vane for this narrative. From a technical perspective, Ethereum's recent volatility reflects a shift in market attitude towards risk assets. The popularity of Meme coins to some extent represents retail investors' attitude—tired of being exploited by top projects and KOLs, they want to take a gamble with high-risk assets. But the question is, how long can this counterattack last? Are the stability of BTC and ETH a moat or a constraint on the Meme coin craze? This is not just a digital issue; it’s more about the psychological game in the market.

Looking at the patterns after Bitcoin halving events, we can see the trend. It's been almost 20 months since the last halving, and the previous three bull market peaks all occurred within 12 to 18 months after the halving. In other words, we have probably missed that main upward wave. Recently, the market has indeed been weakening, and at this stage, it's not just about technical analysis anymore. How macro liquidity moves, how regulatory policies in various countries are adjusted, and whether there are new concepts being hyped—these are the key factors that determine the market direction. Simply looking at the cycle is not enough; all these factors need to be considered together.