The Pi Coin rally is gaining momentum as all groups are joining in on the purchases — but there is a risk lurking below the $0.29 mark.

The Pi Coin rally is gaining momentum again: all buyer groups — from large holders to retail investors — are actively purchasing. A breakout could happen with a rise of 7%, but the movement is still overshadowed by one bearish signal.

After months of quiet, Pi Coin is finally showing signs of activity again. The price of Pi Coin has risen nearly 32% this week, marking one of the token's best performances in recent months. Traders view this rise in Pi Coin as the beginning of something bigger. However, some metrics on the Pi chart indicate that the rally could be fragile if the price does not break through one key level.

However, signs beneath the surface hint at a deeper story, where confidence may be quietly recovering, and the next breakthrough could determine the direction of PI in the coming weeks.
Quiet confidence is building around the Pi Coin rally.

The Pi Coin impulse is not just random speculation; it comes from all sides of the market.

The Smart Money Index (SMI), which tracks the activity of historically profitable or institutional wallets, has sharply risen since October 25. The index recently climbed above its signal line for the first time in several weeks, indicating the return of large investors after they missed much of the recent downward trend.
Pi Coin records the inflow of Smart Money:

Whale movements are beginning to reflect this optimism. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), measuring the influx of large funds, has risen above zero for the first time since mid-September.

The last time this happened, Pi Coin experienced a brief surge, followed by a correction. The positive CMF now indicates that whales are once again investing capital in the token rather than exiting it.
Large funds are coming into PI:

Retail traders seem to be following their lead in this ongoing Pi Coin rally.

The Money Flow Index (MFI), which combines price and trading volume to assess buying pressure, has been forming higher highs since October 12, indicating ongoing accumulation. When all three signals—smart money, whales, and retail—align, it often points to a coordinated phase of quiet confidence before a strong price movement. Retail investors are bullish on the Pi Coin rally:

However, this confidence will soon face the most serious test.
The falling wedge faces a defining moment

On the daily chart, the price of Pi Coin remains within a descending wedge — a pattern that often signals a forthcoming bullish reversal. On October 27th, the price briefly tested the upper boundary of the wedge at $0.29 but was rejected by sellers. However, buyers have since regained positions, maintaining the rally structure of Pi Coin.

If Pi Coin breaks and holds above $0.29, it will confirm the breakout and pave the way to $0.32, and then to $0.37. However, the first barrier to a sustained rally for PI is the $0.28 level — previously identified as the first significant resistance.

A confident move above this zone could decisively shift the sentiment in favor of the bulls.

However, the risk still remains. From August 9 to October 29, the price of Pi formed lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a tool for measuring buying and selling strength, showed higher highs. This discrepancy is known as hidden bearish divergence and typically indicates that the existing downtrend may still retain strength.
Price Analysis of Pi Coin:

Over the past three months, Pi Coin has still decreased by 36.8%, which maintains the overall bearish trend. If the price falls below $0.20, it will completely nullify the bullish scenario, potentially dropping it to $0.18 or $0.15.