The vast majority of altcoins are not recommended for long-term holding. By this time next year, 80% of altcoins will become worthless. Not a 50% cut, not a 90% decline, but complete delisting and disappearance. There are currently 883 days until the next Bitcoin halving, which is at the bottom of the halving cycle. Looking back, the end of 2013, 2017, and 2021 all corresponded to bear market bottoms. This time is even worse—while ETF funds support BTC and ETH, most altcoins do not, meaning this bear market could see altcoins decline even more deeply than before.

A few years ago, projects were led by the teams—handling fundraising, listing, and secondary market operations in a full-stack manner. Later, market makers took the lead, and project teams' roles diminished. This year, it’s become even more extreme, with platforms integrating primary and secondary markets, turning project teams into supporting roles. Without funding, they lack the motivation to maintain the ecosystem. The current market has become a pure game of racing ahead.

Recently, some altcoin project teams have been dumping tokens at low prices, willing to sell at 40% or even 20% of the original price. Think about it—when project teams are actively clearing out their holdings, what reason do they have to maintain the secondary market price? Market-making institutions are buying out circulating supply, and combined with futures hedging mechanisms for shorting, the entire altcoin sector is being systematically liquidated.

In the future, only two types of projects will survive: mainstream coins with ETF support and tokens deeply integrated with platforms. All the popular projects and coins this year are closely tied to platforms. Going forward, the blockchain will become more centralized—whether it’s yield farming, NFT gaming, or altcoin trading, as long as it’s detached from the platform ecosystem, the outcome is almost certainly loss or exit.

After the short squeeze in November and December, the on-chain altcoin market will quickly become bleak again next year. I’m not bearish, but I want to remind everyone: most altcoins should not be held long-term. The current market is not the wild west of ten years ago. Reduce your expectations, stop fantasizing, and preserving your principal is the greatest victory.