Tonight's global financial calendar can be described as quite "crowded". OPEC monthly report, speeches from several Fed officials, EIA crude oil inventory data, U.S. Treasury bond auction - these seemingly "off the radar" macro events are actually becoming key variables for the short-term trends in the crypto market.

Why do traditional financial events deeply affect the prices of digital assets? The core lies in the interconnected effects of liquidity expectations. When Fed officials release hawkish signals, market concerns about the "continuation of the tightening cycle" can directly withdraw liquidity from risk assets, with mainstream currencies like BTC often being the first to bear the brunt. Conversely, if the statements lean dovish, funds may quickly flow back in to drive a rebound.

A typical case occurred last month: a Fed official mentioned in an informal setting that "further rate hikes are not ruled out," causing the BTC price to drop nearly 3% within 5 minutes, and the derivatives market saw over a hundred million dollars in liquidations in an instant. This kind of "policy expectation surprise" is especially likely to happen on days with dense events.

**Three dimensions to focus on tonight:**

**Changes in the wording of Fed officials' speeches**
After 10 PM Beijing time, we will enter a period of intensive speeches, focusing on their evaluations of the current interest rate policy. If multiple officials emphasize "the need to maintain a restrictive stance" at the same time, the market may price in a longer high-interest cycle in advance; if there are similar statements such as "inflation pressure easing," it may trigger short-term bullish sentiment.

**Implied Information of EIA Crude Oil Inventory**
Crude oil inventories fell more than expected → upward pressure on energy prices → rising inflation expectations → a steeper interest rate path. Although this transmission chain takes a detour, the impact is even more lasting for interest rate-sensitive encryption assets.

**10-Year Treasury Auction Results**
The bid multiplier and the winning yield can directly reflect the confidence of institutions in the economic outlook. If auction demand is weak and yields soar, it indicates that the market is pricing in a more pessimistic scenario, and risk assets will be under pressure in advance.

**Practical Advice for Short-Term Traders:**

The risk-reward ratio of holding a large position overnight is extremely asymmetric. On a "super event day" like tonight, any data that exceeds expectations could trigger a one-sided market trend. Maintaining a position size of 30-50% is safer, as it allows participation in potential opportunities without being forced to exit due to a black swan event.

If you hold derivative positions, be sure to check your stop-loss settings before 10 PM. During speeches by Fed officials, liquidity will be intermittently withdrawn, and slippage is the norm; do not let a technical liquidation ruin an otherwise correct directional judgment.

Compared to watching the K-line, it is more crucial to layout an "event-driven strategy" in advance—such as lightly going long on volatility before the EIA data is released, or waiting until all the shoes have dropped to make directional choices based on market reactions. Remember, true Alpha is often hidden in those 15 minutes of "market digesting information", rather than the event itself.

I will personally track the progress of tonight's events, focusing on interpreting the liquidity implications behind the policy signals. If a dovish combination is ultimately presented (increased crude oil inventory + officials downplaying interest rate hikes + strong demand for government bonds), it could represent a rare right-side entry window in the near term.