The U.S. government shutdown has lasted for 45 days and is finally about to end? The market has already voted with money—97% are betting that it will restart between November 12 and 15, with only a few days left until the deadline on the 15th. This farce seems to be coming to an end.

In simple terms, the market is desperate. With no money flowing for a month and a half, government spending is stuck, project funds are frozen, and the operations of various institutions are restricted; the entire situation feels like it’s been put on pause. Now, we finally see a glimmer of hope, and the betting craze is actually a collective release after being pent up for so long.

But the problem arises – everyone’s thoughts are too一致, which is inherently dangerous. If the 15th really restarts, will the "good news be realized" follow closely? The previously overdrawn optimistic sentiment might immediately turn around and crash; what if the negotiations collapse again? Then the backlash would be even more severe, and the betting frenzy would instantly turn into a panic stampede.

What really deserves attention is where the money flows after the government restarts. The fiscal expenditures and project allocations that have been held back for a month and a half will become a new source of liquidity. Risk assets are the most sensitive to funds and are likely to be the first to benefit. Although the direct profit margin may not be large, the warming of sentiment is always a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation— the confidence boost brought by liquidity recovery may be the true invisible driving force behind the subsequent market trends. Assets like Bitcoin are worth paying more attention to.