The announcement of U.S. economic data has been delayed, how will the encryption market respond to concerns about stagflation?

The unexpected delay in key economic data from the U.S. Department of Labor has added new uncertainty to an already complex market environment. Core indicators such as CPI and initial jobless claims, originally scheduled to be released this week, have been postponed to next week due to backlogs in statistical work caused by the ongoing effects of the federal government shutdown. This rare situation immediately triggered a chain reaction in the encryption currency market.

Policy dilemmas under the shadow of stagflation

Goldman's latest assessment indicates that the upcoming data may exhibit three characteristics: "cooling employment, sticky inflation, and weak growth," which are typical signs of stagflation. In a stagflation environment, the Federal Reserve faces dual constraints: raising interest rates could suppress an already weak economic growth, while lowering rates may allow inflation to spiral out of control. For risk assets like Bitcoin, this policy dilemma means that traditional safe-haven logic and liquidity expectations will face fierce conflicts—stagflation could trigger sell-offs due to concerns over economic recession, but it could also enhance the appeal of encryption assets due to declining real interest rates.

Market characteristics during the data vacuum period

Historical experience shows that the significant economic data blackout period often exhibits three main characteristics: first, the volatility curve tends to flatten, with institutional funds generally reducing their positions to neutral levels; second, market sentiment is extremely sensitive, and micro news may trigger overshooting reactions; third, trading opportunities based on expectation differences accumulate, and the deviation between actual data and consensus expectations will determine market direction. Currently, the implied volatility in the options market has dropped to a three-week low, indicating that traders are waiting for directional catalysts.

Key Data Interpretation Framework

Next week, data needs to focus on three dimensions:

1. Inflation Data: If the core CPI month-on-month is below 0.3%, it will strengthen the narrative of falling inflation, and the expectation of declining real interest rates will be favorable for Bitcoin; if it exceeds 0.4%, concerns about stagflation will escalate, and the market may come under pressure.

2. Labor Market: The number of initial jobless claims is higher than 230,000, which will confirm a substantial cooling of the employment market and may increase the probability of a shift in the Federal Reserve's policy.

3. Comprehensive Signal: It is necessary to observe the "inflation-employment" combination. The ideal scenario is "inflation decline + moderate cooling of employment," which will open up policy space.

Practical Strategy Recommendations

In the current environment, investors can adopt a "dynamic defense + opportunistic allocation" combination strategy:

In terms of position management, it is recommended to maintain a neutral position of 50%-60% and keep sufficient cash reserves. A pyramid-style averaging up method can be adopted: if Bitcoin breaks below the key support level, incrementally increase the position by 10% for every 3%-5% drop, avoiding a one-time heavy investment.

In terms of risk hedging, protective strategies can be constructed using options. For example, while holding spot positions, buying slightly out-of-the-money put options can hedge tail risk, with the premium cost controlled to within 2% of the total position.

Psychological preparation is crucial. It is necessary to establish the iron rule of "not chasing prices before data release, and daring to take action after extreme fluctuations." Historical data shows that within 24 hours after the release of major data, the average volatility of the cryptocurrency market reaches ±8%, but the probability of prices returning to a rational range after 72 hours exceeds 65%.

A long-term perspective is essential. Currently, the Bitcoin network hash rate has reached an all-time high, and institutional holdings are steadily increasing, with the fundamentals not deteriorating. If the data confirms a trend of declining inflation, coupled with the halving cycle next year, the medium to long-term allocation value remains significant.

Risk Warning: The cryptocurrency market trades 24 hours a day, and leverage tools can amplify volatility risks. It is recommended that ordinary investors do not exceed a contract leverage of 3 times and avoid opening new positions within 2 hours before and after data announcements. Final decisions should be based on individual risk tolerance, and this article does not constitute investment advice.

The market always rewards prepared investors. Finding certainty amid uncertainty and grasping the rhythm amid volatility are the keys to remaining undefeated in this round of data shocks. #CoinDesk11月报告Gate战绩来袭 #广场发币瓜分千U奖池 #XRP现货ETF将上线