Daily Analysis #BTC

1️⃣ Structural Interpretation Yesterday's daily report mentioned that the 100k level is not secure. At the time of writing the daily report, the price was below 100k, and the current key support level is being contested repeatedly.
2️⃣ Capital Flow & On-chain & Exchange Dynamic Capital Flow (Market "Blood Infusion" Situation): Institutional capital shows an outflow trend. Data shows that Fidelity's spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow of approximately $132.9 million on November 13. This partially reflects the cautious attitude of some institutional investors in the short term. On-chain data (Large holders' "hidden cards" movement): Short-term holders are one of the main sources of selling pressure recently. Data shows that the number of Bitcoins flowing into exchanges has increased, with Binance's average daily Bitcoin inflow reaching 7,500 coins. Many short-term holders' costs are around $112,000, and since the current price is below their cost, some of them choose to sell at a loss, exacerbating market volatility. Exchange Dynamics (Market "Sentiment" Thermometer): High-leverage longs have encountered a new round of liquidation. In the past 4 hours, the total liquidation amount across the network reached $213 million, with long liquidations accounting for $195 million, taking up the vast majority. This indicates that during the decline, high-leverage chasing funds suffered the most severe losses.
3️⃣ The trading strategy for the day is mainly defensive, observing changes. Before there is a clear alleviation of market panic, do not go long, or proceed with caution if you do. It's essential to control your position; in principle, you shouldn't mention going long because you are too afraid of missing the bottom. I can only say that if you try to catch the bottom here, you might end up in a difficult position. If the price rebounds to around 105000 and shows hesitation, weakness in breaking through, along with bearish engulfing patterns or dark cloud cover K-line formations, you might consider a light short position. The current market sentiment is extremely sensitive, and any operation must be done with a light position and strict stop-loss settings. The safest strategy is to maintain patience and wait for the market to clearly establish a direction.
4️⃣ Risk Warning Psychological Barrier Breach Risk: The $100,000 level is crucial. If it breaks down with significant volume, it will severely impact market confidence, potentially triggering programmed sell-offs and long position stop losses, leading to accelerated price declines and further testing the support area of $91,500 to $95,000. High Leverage Liquidation Risk: Market volatility remains high, with over $200 million in leverage already liquidated. If the price experiences another severe one-way fluctuation, the remaining leveraged positions may continue to be washed out, resulting in a "long squeeze" or "short squeeze" scenario, amplifying short-term volatility. Emotional Selling Risk: The market fear index has reached an "extreme fear" level. Under extreme emotions, investors are prone to make irrational decisions, leading to panic selling, which in turn may trigger an unexpected price drop.