The market is something that becomes more mysterious the more you ponder it.

Have you noticed? When everyone firmly believes in a certain rule, that rule often tends to fail. Just like now—everyone in the circle is talking about Bitcoin entering a "bear market year" in 2026, citing that mythologized four-year cycle.

The question arises: this collective belief is itself changing the rules of the game.

The logic is simple: everyone is afraid of a crash in 2026, so they start retreating in 2025. These panic sell-offs actually release the pressure ahead of time, and it could very well be that 2025 becomes a period of weakness. By that time, the so-called cycle is not "replaying," but has been rewritten by the traders themselves.

So 2026? It might not go according to the script at all.

To be realistic, BTC has only risen about 2.5% this year so far. The market has long been voting with its feet.

BTC-0.33%

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

10 Likes

Reward
10
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

JustHereForAirdrops

· 9h ago

The selling pressure has come early, indicating that the cycle theory should have collapsed by now. Everyone wants to avoid it, but instead, they have wiped out the bottom.

View OriginalReply0

WagmiOrRekt

· 9h ago

Wow, this is what I've really understood. Collective belief rewrites the rules, we are all betting against ourselves. --- The cycle theory, to put it simply, is just self-fulfilling prophecy. Panic selling has become the biggest fundamental. --- According to this logic, 2026 doesn't even need to come, 2025 is already a Bear Market. --- It's hilarious, everyone is betting on the four-year cycle, but in the end, they bet away the cycle. The market loves to Reverse harvest its followers. --- This 2.5% drop in BTC says it all, the money has long been walking away. --- The problem is, who really believes in the four-year cycle now... those who believed have already been played people for suckers multiple times. --- Collective Consensus = Collective trap, it's just that simple and brutal. --- Anyway, I've seen through it, the more precise the prediction, the more you miss out. --- This analysis is incredible, it has clarified my confusion over the past few months.

View OriginalReply0

RunWhenCut

· 9h ago

In simple terms, the more everyone fears a crash in 2026, the more they will dump early, which will actually accelerate the progress of the Bear Market. Cycles are inherently supported by imagination.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeCrybaby

· 9h ago

The manipulation theory has won, while the cycle theory has died? Anyway, my Wallet is grinning.

View OriginalReply0

ImpermanentPhilosopher

· 9h ago

The thing about the cycle theory is that it's basically a self-fulfilling prophecy. Everyone believes in a crash in 2026, which instead changes the timeline for the crash. It's really fucking ironic.

View OriginalReply0

GasFeeSobber

· 9h ago

The rhetoric of the four-year cycle, the more people talk about it now, the less I believe it. Collective expectations are the biggest trap.

View OriginalReply0

Trending TopicsView More
#TopGainersInADownMarket
466 Popularity
#FOMCMeetingMinutesComingUp
430 Popularity
#BitcoinPriceWatch
414 Popularity
#GovShutdownOfficiallyEnded
29.97K Popularity
#BuyTheDipOrWaitNow?
16.13K Popularity

Hot Gate FunView More

1
GCGCOMMUNITY
MC:$3.81KHolders:1
0.00%
2
98
MC:$3.81KHolders:1
0.00%
3
ChildMasChildMas
MC:$3.8KHolders:1
0.00%
4
GTMGTM
MC:$3.94KHolders:3
0.29%
5
ASIFTAHSINASIF TAHSIN
MC:$3.8KHolders:1
0.00%

Sitemap