Is Bitcoin really in a "bear trap"? On-chain data tells you the answer.

Interestingly, during the historical bull run cycles of BTC, there is always a “bear trap” that occurs around the 6th month — it looks like it's about to collapse, but ultimately takes the opposite position and reaches new highs. Analyst Finish has analyzed data from 2011 to the present, and this pattern can be verified in every cycle.

The year 2013 was a double blow from the closure of the Silk Road and China's ban on cryptocurrencies; 2017 saw a sell-off triggered by the launch of CME futures; and in 2021, Musk suddenly changed his stance on not accepting BTC, which scared retail investors away.

The 2024-2025 cycle is also following the routine. Trump's policies (interest rate cuts, trade wars, aiming to turn the U.S. into a “crypto capital”) have created a wave of short-term volatility, but this coincides perfectly with the bear trap node in the 6th month. Analyst Danny is more aggressive; he predicts that April 2025 is when the real bull run starts, targeting $30,000 by 2026.

But here's a cold splash of water: CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju analyzed on-chain PnL signals and believes this bull run has already ended. Ecoinometrics also pointed out that the increase of BTC in this cycle is far below the historical average.

Technical Analysis Short-term Look Here: BTC is currently stuck at the $85,000 resistance level, RSI is at 54.51 which is neutral, and the Bollinger Bands are narrowing (indicating that volatility is about to increase). A breakthrough above $88,000 would confirm an upward movement, while a drop below $80,000 would signal a new round of selling.

Should we bottom fish? Let's wait and see the data and regulatory trends.