November 20 | ETH trend analysis

Core Viewpoints

Current Price: $3,035 (as of November 20, 09:00)

Short-term outlook: Neutral to bearish. Technical analysis shows signs of stabilization on the 1-hour chart, but the 4-hour chart remains in a bearish structure. On-chain data indicates that net inflows to exchanges have increased, exerting selling pressure. Social sentiment is cautiously optimistic, but concerns about the end of the cycle persist. It is expected that ETH will fluctuate within the range of $2,900 to $3,100 over the next 24 hours, with slightly greater downside risk than upside potential.

Key Support:

• $3,000 (1 Hour EMA12)
• $2,917 (4-hour Bollinger Band lower bound, strong support)
• $2,874 (24-hour low)

Key Resistance:

• $3,049 (1-hour SMA50)
• $3,094 (4-hour EMA26, strong resistance)
• $3,125 (24-hour high)

Technical Analysis

multiple time frame signals

• 1-hour chart: RSI at 52.1 is in the neutral zone, MACD histogram turning positive ( +7.0) indicates improvement in short-term momentum, price is above the EMA but still below the SMA50.
• 4-hour chart: RSI 45.2 is approaching oversold, MACD continues with negative values (-0.2) confirming the downtrend, price is below all major moving averages.

Derivatives Market

The total open contract volume is $3.81 billion, showing a 0.15% decrease in 24 hours, indicating a reduction in leverage commitment. The funding rate remains positive at 0.005-0.01%, with bulls paying bears, increasing the cost of holding long positions. In the past 24 hours, liquidations amounted to $223 million, of which long liquidations of $194 million dominated, reflecting downward pressure.

On-chain Data

Network Activity

• Trading Volume: 1.57 million transactions in the last 24 hours, up 3.38% from the previous period.
• Gas Fees: Average 1.569 Gwei, network utilization 45.48%, L2 migration keeps mainnet costs low.
• Active Addresses: The ecosystem has about 500,000 to 600,000 daily active addresses, with the main growth coming from L2.

Large Holder Trends

On November 19, the exchange had a net inflow of 58,122 ETH (approximately $175 million), the highest level in recent times, suggesting potential selling pressure. Bitmain's suspected wallet received 24,827 ETH but did not immediately flow out, indicating institutional strategic holding. BlackRock ETF saw an outflow of $523 million, continuing a four-week trend of $2.19 billion in sell-offs.

Market Sentiment

Social media shows mixed emotions, with expectations of a technical rebound coexisting with macro concerns. Vitalik's warning about the threat of quantum computing has triggered short-term FUD, but developments in privacy technology and narratives of supply tightening provide support. On the institutional level, BlackRock's plan to launch a staking ETH trust product boosts confidence, but panic at the end of the cycle limits upside potential.

Conclusion

ETH is facing dual pressures of technical consolidation and capital outflow in the short term, with the $3,000 psychological level being a key battleground. If it falls below this level, the strong support at $2,917 will be tested; on the upside, it needs to overcome the resistance at $3,094 and confirm accompanying trading volume. It is advisable to pay attention to the impact of macro events, such as the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, on risk sentiment.