#主流币交替攀升 The crypto market now feels like a glass heart. While the US stock market is rising happily, here it is lifeless. As a result, a Fed official casually mentioned, "Quantitative tightening may return," and the slightly improving market instantly cooled down.

However, if you look at the meeting minutes, you will find that things are not that simple. They did not decide to shrink the balance sheet because they think the economy has collapsed, but rather because regulatory requirements forced banks to hold more reserves, and the Fed was compelled to hit the brakes. In other words, if regulatory rules are loosened in the future, there is indeed a possibility that QT could be reversed.

There is currently a hidden benefit: market makers are flocking back to the domestic bond market, and liquidity in the repurchase market is clearly warming up. A liquidity crisis like that in 2019 is unlikely to reoccur in the short term. However, looking at the long term, the outlook is not optimistic—if QT really returns for the long term, dollar liquidity will definitely tighten again, and the days of unlimited money printing will come to an end. Risk assets like $BTC and $ETH will eventually come under pressure.

That being said, U.S. policies have always been subject to change, and the market focuses on the present. Long-term plans can be overturned at any time, and short-term expectations are the true guiding force for trading. The crypto market has just barely caught its breath and really can't withstand more hawkish bombardment.