Independent Researcher: Will Nvidia Become a $610 Billion AI Ponzi Scheme? Smart Money Has Already Fled AI

Summarizing the drastic fluctuations in Nvidia's stock price after the earnings release, raising concerns about its financial health. Researcher Perera points out significant contradictions in the company's accounting data, with a surge in outstanding receivables and inventory, and a cash flow conversion rate below industry peers. The exposure of the capital cycle phenomenon indicates that revenue has not truly materialized. Investors are fleeing en masse, warning that Nvidia's future could trigger a broader market crash, and suggesting a shift to more stable assets.

BlockBeats news: On November 21, independent market researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera stated that yesterday, an unprecedented upheaval occurred. Nvidia's stock price soared 5% after the earnings report but plummeted into negative territory within 18 hours. Wall Street algorithms detected anomalies unnoticed by humans: serious contradictions in the accounting data.

Specific findings include: Nvidia's uncollected receivables surged 89% year-over-year to $33.4 billion, with the payment cycle lengthening from 46 days to 53 days. Meanwhile, chip inventory increased 32% to $19.8 billion. The $19.3 billion profit only translated into $14.5 billion in cash flow, with a conversion rate of 75%, far below the industry average of 95%, a gap of $4.8 billion reaching crisis levels.

AI ecosystem capital cycle exposure: Nvidia invested $2 billion in xAI, which borrowed $12.5 billion to buy Nvidia chips; Microsoft invested $13 billion in OpenAI, which promised to purchase $50 billion worth of Azure, with Microsoft ordering another $100 billion worth of Nvidia chips; Oracle provided OpenAI with a cloud quota of $300 billion, and OpenAI repurchased Nvidia chips for Oracle. The same funds are repeatedly counted as revenue, yet cash has never truly landed.

Smart money has already fled: Peter Thiel sold $100 million worth of Nvidia stock on November 9; SoftBank divested $5.8 billion holdings on November 11; Michael Burry bought put options for Nvidia at $140 expiring March 2026. Bitcoin fell from $126,000 to $86,000. Analysts warn that a further 40% decline in Nvidia could trigger a forced liquidation of $23 billion worth of Bitcoin, causing a market crash.

The timeline is set: bad debt revealed in the February 2026 earnings report; credit rating downgraded in March; first financial restatement in April. Nvidia's fair value is $71, current price is $186, indicating an overvaluation of 162%. A 90-day crash countdown for the AI bubble has begun.

Overall, Perera remains cautious about central bank interventions, geopolitical frictions, and concentrated tech risks. He recommends investors shift towards assets driven by "thermodynamics and game theory," rather than relying on nostalgic central bank policies.