BTC November 24 Market Analysis

1. Trend Analysis

· The bearish pattern remains intact: the price is below all major EMAs, and the EMAs are in perfect bearish alignment.
· Short-term stabilization signs: The price rebounded slightly after finding support at 85,902.4, approaching EMA5 again.
· Decrease in downward momentum: The DEA of MACD is positive, but it is necessary to combine it with DIF to determine the complete MACD status.
· Overall weakness unchanged: from the position of EMA in various cycles, there is heavy pressure above.

2. Price Position Analysis

· Key Battleground: Currently at 87,321.7, testing the EMA5 resistance of 87,364.9
· Support validity confirmation: The 85,902.4 low point support has been validated once.
· Limited rebound strength: The rebound from the low point is about 1.4%, indicating insufficient buying power.

3. Volume Analysis

· Extremely low trading volume: The current trading volume of 1.799 billion is far below the 5-day 1.814 billion and 10-day 1.8408 billion average.
· Characteristics of volume contraction rebound: During the rebound process, the trading volume shrinks, indicating low market participation.
· Clear signs of a trend reversal: Often accompanied by important directional choices after extreme volume contraction.

4. Support and Resistance Analysis

· Resistance Levels:
· Recent resistance: 87,364.9 (EMA5)
· Strong resistance 1: 88,094.0 (24-hour high)
· Strong Resistance 2: 89,888.6 (EMA10)
· Support Level:
· Key Support: 85,902.4 (24-hour low)
· Psychological support: 85,000.0
· Strong support: 83,000.0

Trend Prediction

Most likely scenario (50% probability): continuation downward after the rebound is blocked.

1. Reason: Bearish alignment unchanged + Decreased volume rebound + EMA5 resistance suppression
2. Path:
· Rebounded near 87,364.9 (EMA5) and fell back
· Testing the validity of support at 85,902.4 again
· If it falls below, look towards the area below 85,000
3. Key Observations: EMA5 Resistance and Volume Changes

Possible scenario (30% probability): Range consolidation

1. Trigger Condition: 85,902.4 support is valid + strong market wait-and-see sentiment
2. Fluctuation range: 85,900-88,100 interval
3. Nature Judgment: Downward continuation consolidation, accumulating energy for the subsequent direction.

Low probability scenario (20% probability): Volume breakout continues the rebound

1. Condition: Break through 88,094 with volume and stay above EMA5.
2. Rebound target: 89,000-89,888 range
3. Features: Requires significant volume increase and sustained buying pressure.

Trading advice

For long holders:

· Suggest reducing positions on rebound: Consider reducing positions in the range of 87,300-87,800.
· Strict Stop Loss: Set below 85,800
· Add to position after confirmation of breakout: Only consider replenishing if it breaks above 88,100 with significant volume.

For short sellers/wait-and-see investors:

· You can short with a light position at 87,300-87,600, with a stop loss above 88,200.
· If it breaks below 85,902, you can consider shorting, target 85,000.
· Be patient and wait for a better shorting position

Risk Control Focus:

· Key Observation Points:
· 87,364.9 (EMA5) resistance strength
· 85,902.4 support effectiveness
· Is the trading volume increasing?
· Long Stop Loss: Below 85,800
· Short Stop Loss: Breakthrough 88,200

Risk Warning

1. Trading volume has drastically shrunk, and a change in trend may happen at any time, so it is necessary to pay close attention.
2. The overall bearish trend has not changed, and the risk of contrarian operations is relatively high.
3. The key support at 85,902.4, if broken, may trigger an accelerated decline.
4. It is recommended to operate with a light position, strictly set stop-losses, and control individual transaction risks.

Summary

BTC is currently still in a clear bearish trend. Although it has found support at 85,902.4 for a technical rebound in the short term, the rebound strength is weak and the trading volume is shrinking. It is recommended to maintain a bearish mindset in operations, primarily shorting on rallies, with a focus on the resistance effect of EMA5 at 87,364.9. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone of 87,300-87,800, it will be a good shorting opportunity. Strict risk control is advised, and patience is required to wait for a clear market direction.