Let's talk about where the money on Wall Street has been going recently - active funds vs strategic funds, who is selling and who is waiting to buy the dip?

I personally prefer to trust the data and not make judgments solely based on feelings. Although data cannot provide you with 100% answers, it can at least help you see the overall trend and not get swayed by emotions.
💚 Active Funds VS 💙 Strategy Funds
Active capital (green line): Hedge funds and mutual funds that trade based on human judgment, macro analysis, and fundamentals. Emotions and news have a significant impact on them.
Strategy Capital (Blue Line): Quantitative funds, CTA, risk parity funds, operate using algorithms, models, and rules, with strong discipline, not easily scared away by market emotions.
From the chart, it can be seen that starting from June 2025, the two types of funds begin to diverge.
In mid-April, faced with tariffs + Federal Reserve uncertainty, strategic funds directly hit the brakes, with holdings almost wiped out (reaching a historical extreme of -2), indicating an extreme bearish outlook. The probability is only 2.3%, which is rare!
Active funds are also reducing their positions, but not as aggressively. The data shows a drop to -1, which is the largest sell-off in a year and a half, indicating that active funds are starting to reduce risk due to concerns over fundamentals or policies.
In June and July, both funds had a rebound:
Active funds are returning to the zero axis, merely restoring normal positions, without FOMO and no aggressive buying.
Strategy funds significantly increased their holdings, especially in September and October, reaching a one-and-a-half-year high.
After the Federal Reserve signaled that it would not cut interest rates in December, both parties began to reduce their positions. However, the active fund holdings were already low (-0.5), indicating that most of the risk has been released, and the selling pressure from active funds is likely to be small moving forward.
What about the strategy funds? Although they have also reduced their positions, it hasn't reached an extreme yet, and there is still a lot of room for bearishness. Simply put, if the strategy funds buy the dip again (-2), the price could drop another 15%, and the VIX might soar to 50+.
‍#非农数据超预期 #比特币行情观察 #btc
🔑 Key Conclusion
Active funds: positions are low, almost sold out, and will not crash the market on a large scale.
Strategic funds: The sell-off is not over yet, there is still room.
Potential rebound: Once market sentiment or policy shifts (for example, if the Federal Reserve takes unexpected actions), active funds will take the lead in building positions, and strategic funds will follow. At that time, the rebound may be much larger than expected.
In summary: active capital has mostly sold off, while strategic capital is still observing. The market may experience some short-term fluctuations, but once a turning point occurs, the alignment of capital could lead to a significant rebound.