#美联储降息预期与政策变化 Recently, statements from Federal Reserve officials have triggered market disagreements over rate cut expectations. Data shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December has dropped from 54% to 39.6%. This fluctuation reflects policymakers’ uncertainty about the economic outlook. Notably, officials such as Williams have sent dovish signals, suggesting a possible rate cut in the short term. However, institutions like JPMorgan have withdrawn their predictions for a December rate cut. This divergence could increase market volatility. It is advisable to closely monitor future economic data and officials' speeches to capture subtle changes in policy direction. At the same time, expectations from various parties should be interpreted cautiously, as actual decisions may be influenced by multiple factors.