The world’s second-largest asset management giant, managing $11 trillion, has finally opened the door to crypto ETFs. As soon as this capital pool is unlocked, the comment sections are full of people shouting, “The institutional bull market is coming!”

But as I look at the data, the story doesn’t seem to go that way.

Institutions are indeed buying, having absorbed over one million BTC through ETFs in the past year. But when you do the math, who’s actually making money here?

The data is clear: 390,000 retail investors have been liquidated and $640 million has simply evaporated. What’s worse, among the short-term holdings of retail investors, there are now 2.8 million BTC in a loss position.

Institutions are accumulating, while retail investors are panic-selling. Does this pattern sound familiar?

So don’t celebrate just yet. The capital inflow is real, but where the money actually goes may not be what you expect. There’s never a shortage of money in the market—what’s lacking is people who can hold onto their assets.