【Repost】Determinism and Uncertainty in Contract Trading🀄

Many people engage in trading, and the biggest issue isn't not understanding the market, but being unable to accept uncertainty. They always want a 100% correct answer, always hoping someone will tell them exactly what to do next. But the reality is, the market itself is uncertain.

True trading isn't about eliminating uncertainty but about finding the probabilities that are favorable to you within uncertainty. You don't need to know whether the market will definitely go up or down; you only need to know:
How to profit if it goes up;
How much you might lose if it goes down;
Whether to participate if it stays flat.
Thinking through these three points thoroughly, you've already won more than half the battle.

Many people lose money because they only think about scenarios where they make money but never seriously consider the risks. When the market moves contrary to expectations, their mentality collapses instantly, and their actions become distorted. First, consider the worst-case scenario; then, think about how much you could possibly earn. This is the dividing line between a mature trader and a gambler.

You'll find that truly stable traders often don't appear aggressive. They won't go all-in every day, nor will they change their views after just one K-line. They respect the market, respect cycles, and respect their own plans. Over the long term, this seemingly conservative approach often leads to the greatest success.

Trading isn't about having a big gut; it's about thinking clearly. Accepting uncertainty is essential for long-term survival in the market; maintaining discipline amidst uncertainty is what gradually leads to stable profits.