An interesting phenomenon worth noting — the open interest in bullish options on the US 10-year Treasury bonds expiring in March has hit a record, reaching approximately 171,150 contracts. What does this number mean? Simply put, these options buyers are betting that bond prices will rise, which means yields will fall.

Even more impressive, the total premium paid for these options alone amounts to about $80 million. That’s no small figure. Coupled with the recent 300% surge in job openings, the market is indeed sending some signals.

Timing is also crucial — these options will expire on February 20, right after the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting. Investors’ intentions are clear: they are preparing for a dovish Fed stance or further rate cuts.

Specifically, the market seems to be pricing in a scenario — over the next few weeks, the 10-year Treasury yield will fall below 4.0%. This is not a random bet but based on judgments about the Fed’s policy direction. Are bond prices really about to rise? From these options data, big players are already placing their bets.