VVV this wave of market looks quite fierce, but digging into the details, the main force's tactics are actually written on the face.

From the low of 1.943, on the 4-hour chart it surged to 2.449 and then started to decline. Now it’s fluctuating around 2.41, with a 24-hour increase of over 20%. At first glance, retail investors are all hyped up, but this is a classic trap to lure in longs.

The total open interest in the futures market has been piling up, indicating a strong bullish sentiment. But if you look at the long-short ratio of big players, you'll understand— the number of accounts with short positions and their share of open interest have always surpassed longs. Instead, retail investors are clustering long positions around 2.40. Even more aggressive, when the price spikes higher, the active sell volume suddenly increases, clearly showing that the main force is offloading at high levels. As the rally progresses, trading volume begins to shrink again, and the bullish momentum is nearly exhausted.

From a technical perspective, the MACD on the hourly chart still shows some weak bullish support, so in the short term, the price is likely to test the previous high of 2.449 again, possibly with a small false breakout to deceive traders. But the problem is, this surge upward has no sustained volume support; once it breaks through, it’s likely to be a trap for a sharp decline.

Currently in this high-level zone, it’s the golden time to short. The closer to the previous high, the more favorable the risk-reward ratio for shorting.