Behind the Supreme Court's silence on January 9th, the global capital markets have already bet all their chips on January 14, 2026. This day is not only the final ruling on the legality of tariffs but also resembles an ultimate showdown between U.S. executive power and Congress's taxing authority.

As investors active in the crypto space, we need to understand the real logic behind this legal tug-of-war—especially why the real-world assets (RWA) track has suddenly become the most vulnerable sector in this round of game theory.

**What are the markets betting on?**

The current consensus is quite consistent. Data from legal experts and prediction platforms (such as exchanges that profit from probabilities) suggest that the probability of the tariffs being deemed legal is roughly between 23% and 28%. In plain terms, the chances of winning are not high.

Why the pessimism? The core reason lies in how the Supreme Court justices demonstrated their obsession with the "major questions doctrine" during the hearings. Their logic is straightforward: such large-scale tariff policies cannot be pushed solely based on a declaration of "emergency"; they must have explicit authorization from Congress.

Based on this stance, the probability that the court will declare the tariffs invalid or impose strict constraints on the President's taxing powers is approximately between 72% and 77%. In other words, there is limited room for reversal.

**Two possible outcomes, two sets of logic**

But the key point here is—regardless of the outcome— the crypto ecosystem, especially sectors like RWA that are deeply tied to real-world assets, cannot escape the chain reaction.

If the court rules the tariffs invalid, how will the market react? If policy uncertainty instead intensifies, how will capital flows change? These questions may seem distant but actually directly impact investors' risk assessment and capital allocation in the RWA track.

Simply put, the ruling on January 14th is not just a legal matter; it is also a re-pricing of market expectations in the crypto space.