The trade war continues to escalate. Trump's tariff policies are currently temporarily maintained, but the road ahead is not smooth—Supreme Court review has become the next critical point.

According to trading data on Polymarket, the market's assessment of the probability that the Supreme Court will ultimately approve these tariff measures is only 25%. In other words, on-chain traders generally believe these policies face significant legal challenges.

What does this mean? If the Supreme Court overturns them, not only will the policies be reversed, but market expectations will also trigger intense volatility. Trade frictions and policy uncertainty have always been important risk factors in the crypto market—from macro asset allocation to the performance of individual coins, all could be re-priced as a result.

Traders have obviously started to bet amid this uncertainty. The low probability on Polymarket reflects the market's pessimistic attitude towards the legal outcome, which also suggests that if the policies are ultimately overturned, it could lead to a significant reverse wave of volatility. It is worth noting that such macro policy uncertainties often increase the volatility of risk assets—cryptocurrency markets are usually the first to be affected.