The risk of a U.S. government shutdown has resurfaced. According to the latest developments, the temporary budget agreement between both parties will expire on January 30, and negotiations over core disagreements are progressing slowly. Whether an agreement can be reached ultimately remains uncertain.

Such policy uncertainties have historically been prone to triggering market turbulence. When markets face a clear risk timeline, large capital often deploys risk-averse strategies in advance. From historical experience, similar policy uncertainties tend to increase market volatility, especially during sensitive periods like the present, where any risk signals could be amplified and misinterpreted by the market.

What does this mean for the crypto market? On one hand, there may be short-term selling pressure on risk assets; on the other hand, it could also present opportunities for accumulation at lower levels. Highly volatile assets like $PEPE, $DOGE, may react first. The key still depends on the actual progress of the negotiations—whether a new budget agreement can be reached before the deadline.

Currently, the most important thing to watch is the market performance around January 30. If signals indicate smooth negotiations, risk sentiment may ease; conversely, volatility could further intensify. Market participants need to closely monitor the latest positions and any major statements from both parties to prepare for possible market adjustments. Whether this "shutdown crisis" can be resolved will largely determine the upcoming market rhythm.